The inherently risky nature of military operations means that all armed forces suffer unavoidable accidents. But a spate of mishaps, such as the three helicopter crashes suffered over the past week by the Royal Thai Army, tends to point to more systemic problems.
The crash of an RTA Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk on July 19 was followed within days by the loss of two Bell 212 Hueys involved in the subsequent search and rescue mission along the Burmese border in Phetchaburi. At least 17 people died in the three incidents.
As tends to happen when a country's military experiences a string of failures—bad weather was blamed for two of the crashes, and technical problems for the third—the top brass responded by calling for urgent investment in new equipment. Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has remained fairly inconspicuous since Thailand's watershed election in early July, said publicly that the RTA required 36 new helicopters to continue operating safely. Gen. Prayuth said he would pass this request to the new government as soon as it was in place, adding that the previous Democrat Party administration had failed to come up with the money for new helicopters despite being made aware of the pressing need.
The Thai situation is reminiscent of the air-worthiness crisis experienced by the Indonesian Air Force in 2009, when a string of crashes killed 130 military personnel and turned the country's poor standard of military equipment into a national scandal. These events gave Jakarta some political leeway to start increasing funding to the military and to invest in replacement transport aircraft.
However, Thailand's situation is very different from that of Indonesia. The Indonesian military has been chronically underfunded for decades, as well as suffering from long-standing arms embargoes that have only recently been lifted, whereas Thailand has always had a healthy defence budget by regional standards, especially since the military coup in 2006. In fact, the Thai defence budget doubled in the three years since the military takeover and now stands at $5.6 billion for 2011, a similar level to the entire defence budget of Indonesia, which has four times Thailand's population.
While it's true that some defence projects were put on hold in 2010 due to the global financial crisis, it seems a bit rich for Gen. Prayuth to blame the government of Abhisit Vejjajiva for withholding military funds during a period when the military itself was in charge of defence policy, and much of the rest of government besides. The question, then, is why the RTA is suddenly in urgent need of helicopters when it has always been amply funded and in a position to set its own priorities.
While the Black Hawk whose crash initiated the crisis was only a few years old, the Hueys that make up the backbone of the RTA's rotary capability have in many cases seen 30 years' service. The Thais have long been aware of these issues, however, having requested three new Black Hawks from the United States, worth $235 million, the day before the first of the three crashes. Huey upgrades have also been on the army's agenda for a long time, although the previous army chief, Gen. Anupong Paochinda, decided against upgrading 15 of the RTA's ageing Hueys in 2008 in order to invest in three new Russian Mil Mi-17 helicopters instead.
Gen. Prayuth's urgent appeal for 36 new helicopters is therefore somewhat disingenuous. He may of course be testing the water, waiting to see how the new prime minister—which will presumably be Yingluck Shinawatra—responds to the demand. Prayuth applied similar pressure in another of his few public outings since the election, when he called for a military man to be named defence minister, despite having previously agreed not to make such interventions.
What ordinary Thais, not to mention the soldiers who have to fly in the army's ageing Hueys, must be wondering is what exactly the country's well-funded army spends its money on. The costly counterinsurgency in Thailand's deep south is one thing; the establishment of a new cavalry division in the far north, a pet project of former army chief Prem Tinsulanonda, is another. These two concerns alone are soaking up billions of dollars, many would argue needlessly.
However, a broader explanation is that when the military effectively sets its own budget and determines its own priorities, the taxpayer gets very poor value for money and the armed forces themselves don't always get investment in the things they really need. The problem for Thailand is that these are policy areas that Yingluck's incoming administration, for all its ambitious campaign promises, will not dare to go anywhere near.
July 30th, 2011 by Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Guest Contributor · 2 Comments
Kittirat Na Ranong is tipped to become the next foreign minister in the new Yingluck Shinawatra administration. According to an inner source inside the Thai Foreign Ministry, a team of diplomats selected by Kittirat is being formed. It will replace the old team led by departing Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya who is Thaksin's number-one enemy.
In the next week, Yingluck will be endorsed by parliamentarians as the first female prime minister since Thailand adopted constitutional democracy in 1932. A cabinet list will be revealed simultaneously. Already, rumours have swirled around in Bangkok in regards to in-fighting among different factions within the Puea Thai Party. They have competed among themselves to get their preferred ministerial portfolios. The race for the position of foreign minister is particularly fierce. There are many contenders vying for the top job in the foreign ministry, a place still perceived as the ultimate "aristocratic state agency" replete with rich and powerful diplomats possessing intimate connections with the palace.
Joining the race are old hands at politics including Mingkwan Saengsuwan, Pranpree Bahiddha-Nukara and Plodprasop Suraswadi.There are also former diplomats who are capable of becoming foreign minister, such as Saroj Chavanaviraj (former foreign minister for 3 days during the Samak Sundaravej government—7-9 September 2008), Vikrom Koompirochana (ambassador to London) and Pithaya Pookaman (ambassador to Bangladesh).
But there is one man who, not included in the above list, stands out among those contenders. His name is Kittirat Na Ranong.
A Foreign Ministry source informed that Thakin specifically handpicked Kittirat to serve as the new foreign minister. The two men have been "close" and have known each other for quite sometimes. He is reported to forge a close alliance with the group led by Sudarat Kaeyurapan within the Puea Thai Party. The choice of Kittirat is interesting. His previous position as the youngest-ever president of Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) could signify a possible return of a commerce-driven diplomacy, a foreign policy trademark of Thaksin when he was prime minister from 2001-2006. Since Kittirat has an impressive career background. This could also signal that Thaksin, learning from his own mistakes, may want to reconstruct Thai diplomacy to be somewhat "cleaner" and more acceptable to Thailand's counterparts.
Prior to joining the SET, Kittirat was chief investment officer of Univentures PLC, and chairman of Cathay Asset Management. However, he gained most of his experience of the securities industry with the trading, research, and asset management arms of Securities One in Bangkok, which he joined in 1987 after a spell in corporate lending with the Thai Farmers Bank. An economics graduate of elitist Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok who earned his MBA from the Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Kittirat was an adviser to the Thai parliament on economic affairs and a director of the State Enterprises Capital Policy Committee.
His career peaked in 2001 when he became the president of the SET. It was a challenging time for Kittirat as he assumed this position just two days before the 9/11 incident which caused a devastating effect on stock markets in many countries around the world, including Thailand. Two years after the tragic incident in New York, however, Kittirat turned things around. The combined profits of companies listed in the SET, under the leadership of Kittirat, stood at 76 billion baht (US$2.5 billion), making the overall growth of Thai stock market of 50 per cent, a speedy recovery from a stocks dip in Thailand. Kittirat was admired for his determination to strengthen Thai stock market. He was also behind the success of the development of the bond market. With these achievements, Kittirat's presidency was renewed for the second term.
But he decided to resign as the president of the SET in 2006 and shifted his career toward the academia. He was deputy director of the academic affairs at Sasin, and now president of the Shinawatra University.
He has always been politically vocal. In his interview with Thai media in 2007, for example, Kittirat openly talked about Thailand's political illness, referring to the cancerous patronage system as a factor that "rotted" Thai society. He said that he was a supporter of meritocracy, good judgment and ethics in business, something that was remotely associated with Thaksin's approach of governance.
When asked if he would be appointed as foreign minister, he said, "I was quite surprised to read about it", referring to a newspaper report that he was to be the dark horse to take up this position. But he did not really deny the story.
Kittirat has his strong connections with the business community both within and outside Thailand. He is well known in the region. Thus, his position as Thailand's foreign minister could help repair the image of the country that has been tainted by the Abhisit government and in particular by Kasit.
If Yingluck is serious about turning a battlefield in Cambodia back to a marketplace, then the choice of Kittirat could be wise. Unlike Kasit, he has no political baggage. Unlike Kasit, he has never insulted the leaders of Thailand's neighbours. And also unlike Kasit, Kittirat is a man with a clear vision, demonstrated during his years at the SET.
But appointing Kittirat could cause a great sense of awkwardness within the Na Ranong family. His brother, Kittipong Na Ranong, is currently Thai ambassador to Washington. Kittipong is a close ally of Kasit. Thus, his appointment could have been politically motivated. Kittipong is also an anti-Thaksin figure. While serving as ambassador to Hanoi, Kittipong heavily criticised his own Foreign Ministry for its instruction to all Thai embassies to whitewash the violent crackdown by the police against the royalist yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in their confrontation in front of the parliament in 2008. Clearly, he has been a sympathiser of the PAD.
So, it seems that the two brothers are on the opposite side of the Thai crisis. Thaksin may want to "punish" some ambassadors who have helped Kasit in hunting him down during the past 30 months. Can Kittirat make a good judgment this time, separating family affairs from political agenda and righteousness from revenge?
Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
His Majesty the King yesterday endorsed a royal decree authorising the opening of an assembly of parliament on Monday to be followed the next day by the election of the House Speaker.
Scent of awoman Presumptive prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra receives a warm welcome from supporters bearing flowers at a municipality market on Phosi Road in Udon Thani's Muang district. She is travelling around the province to thank people for Pheu Thai's victory in the recent election. The province is a stronghold of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.
The Election Commission has endorsed 496 MPs this week, which exceeds the required minimum number of 475 of the total 500 needed for the House to convene.
Pitoon Pumhiran, secretary-general of the House of Representatives, said the opening ceremony will be presided over by His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn on Monday. On Tuesday, a House meeting will be held to elect the House speaker.
Mr Pitoon said former House Speaker Chai Chidchob, as the most senior MP, will temporarily act as the speaker during the first House meeting to select a new House Speaker.
The election of the House Speaker needs to be royally endorsed, a process which could take up to a week.
After the speaker post is royally endorsed, a separate House meeting will be called to elect the new prime minister.
Outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said earlier that he expected to remain in the prime minister's seat until Aug 10. Meanwhile, prospective prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she is willing to consider the nomination of Col Apiwan Wiriyachai for the post of House Speaker.
Col Apiwan, a former deputy House speaker and Pheu Thai list MP, has been nominated for the post by red shirts who are party MPs.
Col Apiwan is also a key member of the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.
A source said Khon Kaen MP Somsak Kiatsuranont is also a strong contender. Mr Somsak has managed to distance himself from the red shirts, which means he is unlikely to be a target for attack from the opposition, while Col Apiwan is a UDD co-leader and so more vulnerable to opposition criticism.
Ms Yingluck dismissed suggestions she was under pressure to make a decision on who will be given the speaker's post and said she was ready to listen to party members's suggestions.
However, she said party members should try to understand if their nominees are not picked. Ms Yingluck added candidates for the speaker's post must be well-versed in law and have experience in parliamentary affairs.