http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/?p=864

Open Letter to PM Abhisit on Election Concerns

Hon. Abhisit Vejjajiva
Prime Minister of Thailand
Bangkok, Thailand
(By email: Abhisit@abhisit.org)

Dear Mr. Abhisit,

As you are aware, I act on behalf of the United National Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). Our members have sacrificed beyond all measure to ensure that Thais from all political persuasions would have the opportunity to freely cast their ballots in a fair and competitive environment in the upcoming July 3rd general elections. Many fear that the pre-election polling results present a threat to the current leadership, the Democrat Party and elements of the Royal Thai Army, and that, consequently, the legitimacy of the election is now at risk.

Of critical importance to the pro-democracy movement in Thailand are a number of actions undertaken by your government that undermine the democratic process:

1. The accelerated criminalization of free speech
2. Instrumentalization of the border dispute with Cambodia
3. The disenfranchisement of voters' rights
4. Manipulations of ballot forms and other administrative details

The ability of Thai citizens to speak freely without fear of punishment is essential to the democratic process, however in Thailand, the opposition is under siege. Almost 500 lese majeste cases were prosecuted over the past year. Major international news organizations have been pressured into self-censorship. A recent statement from the Asian Human Rights Commission commented that "free expression has become an even more dangerous endeavour in Thailand than it was earlier, as highlighted here by three cases which signal the gravity of the threat not only to the freedom of expression in the short term, but also to human rights more broadly. The first is the case of Mr. Aekkechai Hongkangwan, who has been released on bail; and, the others are the cases of Mr. Joe Gordon and Mr. Somyos Preuksakasemsuk, who remain under detention."

In addition to Thailand's attack on free speech, the Democrat Party has not hesitated to instrumentalize the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, including the provocative withdrawal from the World Heritage Convention, and statements from the Election Commission that the poll could be suspended in the event of an "emergency situation." We are also very concerned by the belligerent and inflammatory statements you made on June 23, promising that he would not hesitate to "to order the army to defend our territory." This rhetoric of unnecessary war has no place in a civil democratic process.

This "militarization" of the process arises in the context of massive military intervention in the pre-election process, which includes statements from General Prayuth Chan-Ocha indirectly expressing the army's preferences to the voters, and implying consequences if they did not vote as instructed.

I need not remind you that your government won power not through the democratic choice of voters, but rather through the manipulations of pliant courts. Ahead of this election, it appears that many voters won't even have the opportunity to cast their ballots. It was recently reported in the Thai press that the Election Commission had failed to notify as many as 500,000 voters who had registered for advance voting outside their home constituencies in the 2007 election that they would be considered ineligible to vote on July 3, 2011 unless they notified the authorities that they intended to vote elsewhere in this election. Because these voters unwittingly failed to vote last Sunday in the areas where they had previously registered, they have now been disenfranchised. While this decision by the Election Commission has been attributed to "poor public relations," such a characterization strains credulity and, at minimum, undermines the legitimacy of the electoral process.

There are also well documented investigations into the mysterious "misprinting" of the ballot form, in which the logo of the Pheu Thai Party is printed in an extremely small size, making it difficult to read for elderly voters. Out of 40 competing parties, of course this is the only one whose logo is incorrectly printed, and the Electoral Commission has refused to correct the issue. This is just one outstanding issue among many other complaints regarding the ballot forms, including issues with the ink, pressures against PTP canvassers, and other extra-administrative efforts that impinge upon the fairness of the process.

These interferences with the right of the voters to a free and fair election flagrantly violate Thailand's international obligations. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights requires that elections must be "genuine," while the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights mandates that elections must guarantee the "free expression of the will of the electors." Where voters are persecuted for expressing their political views, massively disenfranchised, and subjected to military intimidation and ballot manipulations, no resulting election can be deemed either genuine or free.

Be under no illusions that the end point of your subversion of the democratic will of the Thai people has been reached. If democracy is derailed yet again in Thailand, then it would be legally incumbent upon those persons standing for election, who would have almost certainly been elected as leaders by those same citizens, to form an effective government to combat your unconstitutional and prosecutable actions. We demand, on behalf of our clients in the UDD and more than 67 million Thai citizens, that the July 3rd general election is held and its results fully respected.

Govern yourselves accordingly.

Sincerely
Robert Amsterdam
Amsterdam & Peroff LLP
International Counsel to the UDD
London, United Kingdom

CC:

Apichart Sukhagganond
Chairman
Election Commission of Thailand
Government Complex (Building B)
120, Chaeng Wattana Road
Thung Song Hong, Laksi Bangkok 10210 THAILAND

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/world/asia/01thailand.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all

Rural Thais Find an Unaccustomed Power

Agnes Dherbeys for the International Herald Tribune

Thai villagers, like these in Baan Nong Tun, describe a sort of democratic awakening in recent years and say they are no longer willing to accept a Bangkok-knows-best patriarchal system.

By THOMAS FULLER

Published: June 30, 2011

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BAAN NONG TUN, THAILAND — Smiling farmers knee deep in emerald rice paddies and shirtless children riding on the backs of mud-caked water buffalo — these are the romantic images of the Thai countryside. There is one problem with it, says Udom Thapsuri, a farmer here and a local sage. It does not exist anymore.

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• Election in Thailand (July 1, 2011)

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Agnes Dherbeys for the International Herald Tribune

"Young people can't plant," said Nirand Nammontri, the owner of a rural grocery store. "They say it hurts their backs."

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Agnes Dherbeys for the International Herald Tribune

Kayun Thapthani, who won a seat on the first council in Baan Nong Tun, has watched as villagers gained sense that they could control their own political destiny.

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"No one walks to their farm with a big bamboo hat on. That's over," said Mr. Udom, 63, sitting next to his pickup truck.

As campaigning for the national election Sunday entered its final days, there was broad consensus that rural votes would be crucial in deciding the outcome. But no one is quite sure what rural means anymore.

Villagers here complain of slow Internet download speeds. On a single street that winds past rice paddies, residents tell of work stints in Taiwan, Singapore, Israel and Saudi Arabia, enough frequent-flier miles to rival the inhabitants of a tony Bangkok condominium.

Once passive and fatalistic, villagers are now better educated, more mobile, less deferential and ultimately more politically demanding.

Researchers who study rural life say villages like Baan Nong Tun may be ground zero for understanding why Thailand's political crisis — warring political factions, five years of street protests and violent military crackdowns — has been so intractable. The old social contract, whereby power flowed from Bangkok and the political establishment could count on quiet acquiescence in the Thai countryside, has broken down.

Villagers describe a sort of democratic awakening in recent years and say they are no longer willing to accept a Bangkok-knows-best patriarchal system. It is an upheaval that has been ill-understood by the elites, said Attachak Sattayanurak, a history professor at Chiang Mai University, in northern Thailand.

"The old establishment and the Thai state have a picture of an agrarian society frozen in time," he commented on a television program that aired in June. "They maintain a picture of local people as well-behaved and obedient, which in fact they aren't. Peasant society doesn't exist anymore.

"If the country's leaders do not understand these changes, they will not be able to solve our problems," Mr. Attachak said.

Charles Keyes, a U.S. academic who first studied village life here nearly five decades ago, describes a transformation from "peasants to cosmopolitan villagers."

"There is a sense in Thai society that the social contract is being renegotiated," said Mr. Keyes, a professor emeritus of anthropology at the University of Washington.

The convulsive changes to village life and the breakdown of a national political consensus are not just relevant to Thailand, but are a cautionary tale for other countries in Asia that are developing so rapidly, Mr. Keyes says.

"It's definitely something the Chinese, for one, should be more aware of," he said.

For most of Thailand's tumultuous modern history of military coups and countless constitutions, democracy trickled into this rice-farming village. Villagers felt far removed from national elections and rarely met the members of Parliament they voted for.

Then, in the 1990s, as part of an effort to decentralize power, the government introduced a system of local councils, known as township administrative organizations.

Kayun Thapthani, who won a seat on the first council in Baan Nong Tun, remembers a timid gathering of farmers in a meeting hall next to the Buddhist temple. Villagers listened quietly and politely to proposals for road building and support for the elderly. But as time wore on, and when budgets rose and meetings dealt with controversial projects, the deference dissipated. Mr. Kayun described rowdy sessions when "everything became messy, everything went mad."

The councils gave villagers a sense that they could control their own political destiny, said Mr. Udom, the village wise man. The system has come with its disappointments — council budgets are strained and have shrunk in recent years — but the system has brought a greater sense of political intimacy than elections for the national Parliament in Bangkok, a seven-hour drive away. "We have a lot more expectations," Mr. Udom said.

Those expectations were partly answered after the election a decade ago of the populist prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, whose power base was in rural areas, especially here in northeastern Thailand. Mr. Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon and thus a seemingly unlikely champion of the peasant class, managed to cement his popularity by introducing universal health care and funneling government funds into villages, where local officials decided how to distribute it.

When Mr. Thaksin's party was re-elected in 2005 by a wide margin, Mr. Keyes, the professor, remembers a villager's elation. "It used to be that the elite decided who was in power," Mr. Keyes remembers the villager saying. "Today we decide."

But Mr. Thaksin's concentration of power — his critics would say his abuse of power — alienated many voters, especially the elite. Mr. Thaksin faced large-scale street demonstrations in Bangkok against his rule and was overthrown in a military coup in 2006, polarizing the country. Two subsequent prime ministers, allies of Mr. Thaksin's, were also removed from office by the courts in highly politicized cases that many Thaksin supporters say reflected the wishes of the elite.

Mr. Thaksin's allies are trying once again to win power in the election Sunday with the tycoon's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, as the candidate for prime minister. Ms. Yingluck, who is leading in the polls, is up against the party of Abhisit Vejjajiva, the current prime minister, who is allied with the military leadership and the Bangkok establishment.

Thailand's divisions are often described as rural versus urban and rich versus poor, but William Klausner, another U.S. academic, who has studied Thai rural life for more than five decades, says that is an oversimplification. The salient changes to rural life, he says, are that villagers have been unbridled by the dismantling of traditional hierarchies, have broadened their ambitions and are emboldened to speak their minds. In recent years, busloads of villagers have traveled to Bangkok to protest — for and against Mr. Thaksin.

More than two-thirds of Thailand's population lives in rural areas, according to government statistics. But migrations in recent decades have blurred the distinction between countryside and city.

Every family has someone who has gone to work in Bangkok or abroad, says Nirand Nammontri, the owner of a grocery store in Baan Nong Tun who built her house with money that her husband made working at a printing factory in Taiwan.

Although her home is a stone's throw from rice fields, her lifestyle is only marginally bucolic. Her family sometimes raises chickens, but her husband, who now drives a pickup truck modified to serve as a school bus, hires someone to slaughter them. "He feels very sorry for the chickens," Ms. Nirand said.

Her 21-year-old son, who is studying to become a computer programmer, does not know how to plant or harvest rice. "Young people can't plant," Ms. Nirand said. "They say it hurts their backs."

Technology has brought great changes to many parts of the world in recent decades, but the pace of change has been particularly breathless in the Thai countryside.

Five decades ago, Mr. Keyes and Mr. Klausner, now a senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok, separately witnessed isolated, self-sufficient villages where farmers grew their own food and rarely used money because they counted on their neighbors to help with farm work or build stilt houses out of local timber. There was no electricity, piped water or telephone service.

Villagers rarely challenged their superiors, believed in the wrath of the supernatural and had a strong sense of right and wrong that was buttressed by a reverence for local Buddhist monks.

Today, Baan Nong Tun is plugged into the rest of Thailand by television, radio and the Internet. Traveling to other provinces is routine, and every family has a motorcycle or pickup truck.

Mr. Udom squeezes his eyes shut when asked about the changes.

Villagers are more individualistic, and no one works for free, he said. Young people routinely go to college, and families also have more debt. "People want to buy things they cannot afford," he said.

There is less shame. "People don't believe in sin and virtue anymore," Mr. Udom said, his eyes still shut.

The generation gap — from peasant to cosmopolitan villager — is evident in villagers' hands. Mr. Udom's calloused fingers are swollen by years of farm work. Younger people have the soft, thin fingers of city dwellers.

Even the buffaloes have changed their comportment, Mr. Udom said. They used to put in long workdays, hauling and plowing, tasks now done by machines. The buffaloes of today are more disobedient, lazy and fat. And children in the village, who watch television or congregate at Internet cafes when they are not at school, no longer ride on buffaloes' backs, Mr. Udom said.

"I haven't seen that in a long time," he said.

Thailand: Make Human Rights a Priority

http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/06/30/thailand-make-human-rights-priority

Thailand: Make Human Rights a Priority

Political Parties Silent on Rights During Election Campaign

JUNE 30, 2011

The violence and abuses since 2010 demand that Thai political parties put forward a strong human rights agenda.

Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch

(Bangkok) - Thailand's political parties and newly elected members of parliament should make human rights a priority following general elections scheduled for July 3, 2011, Human Rights Watch said today.

During the election campaign, parties and candidates paid little attention to the country's deepening human rights crisis, particularly the lack of accountability for the violent confrontations in April and May 2010 that left at least 90 people dead. Other major concerns are the increasing repression of the media, and killings in the south and in the "war on drugs."                           

"The violence and abuses since 2010 demand that Thai political parties put forward a strong human rights agenda," said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "But while speaking broadly about the need for reconciliation, they have failed miserably to present any concrete plans on how to reverse the continuing repression of basic rights."

Human Rights Watch called on all elected officials, whether in the majority or minority, to tackle the serious human rights problems facing the country. The government, the army, and the various political movements continue to trade accusations about responsibility for the loss of life and destruction of property during the 2010 upheavals, but the government needs to step forward to investigate and prosecute those responsible.

There has been no accountability for serious human rights violations, Human Rights Watch said. Human rights defenders have been murdered and "disappeared" without a single successful prosecution of those responsible. Thousands of extrajudicial killings and other serious abuses connected to the government's anti-drugs and counterinsurgency operations remain unresolved. Government interference with the media has resulted in enforced and self-imposed censorship. People holding dissident opinions, including those on the internet, have been subjected to harsh punishment.

"Holding elections will not make Thailand's human rights problems go away," Adams said. "For the country to move forward, Thai political parties will need to present concrete measures to end abuses, stop censorship, and eliminate impunity."

Lack of Accountability for Politically Motivated Violence

Thailand suffered political violence during 2010 that left at least 90 people dead and more than 2,000 injured and resulted in extensive damage from arson attacks in central Bangkok and several provincial capitals. Research by Human Rights Watch found that a number of factors contributed to these deaths and injuries, including excessive and unnecessary use of lethal force by government security forces, attacks by armed elements within the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), known as the "Red Shirts," and incitement to violence by some UDD leaders (see Human Rights Watch report "Descent into Chaos").

Human Rights Watch called on all sides of the political divide to actively support and participate in credible, independent, and impartial inquiries into politically motivated violence and abuses. Holding all those responsible to account is needed to end the vicious cycle of violence and impunity in Thailand.

The government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva established the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand (TRCT) to investigate and report on the 2010 political violence. However, the commission was not given all-important subpoena power, which is necessary to obtain evidence and question reluctant witnesses, particularly police officers and soldiers. The commission has been unable to obtain complete information about security force deployment plans and operations, autopsy reports, witness testimony, photos, or video footage from the now disbanded civilian-military Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situations (CRES). Other official inquiries, such as those conducted by the National Human Rights Commission and the Senate, have made little progress.

While the government has charged many protest leaders and UDD rank-and-file members with serious criminal offenses, very little progress has been made by the Justice Ministry's Department of Special Investigation and the police to prosecute soldiers and government officials implicated in abuses.

There have also been few serious investigations into alleged criminal offenses committed by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), known as the "Yellow Shirts," during the violent 2008 protests. Cases of senior PAD leaders and members have stalled before reaching trial, as have efforts to seek compensation for damages caused by their protest. At the same time, authorities made little progress to hold legally accountable the politicians identified as responsible for ordering police to use excessive force to disperse the PAD protesters rallying in front of the Parliament on October 7, 2008.

Crackdown on Media Freedom and Freedom of Expression

The Thai government has used vague and overbroad criminal laws to repress media freedom and freedom of expression. Using sweeping powers of the emergency decree proclaimed on April 7, 2010, Thai authorities shut down more than 1,000 websites, a satellite television station, online television channels, publications, and more than 40 community radio stations, most of which were considered closely aligned with the UDD.

Even after the state of emergency was lifted in December 2010, media outlets of the UDD continue to be targeted. On April 26, 2011, armed police officers joined officials from the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) to raid 13 community radio stations in Bangkok and surrounding provinces associated with the UDD. The stations were forced off the air in response to a complaint filed by the army that they were broadcasting material deemed offensive to the monarchy.

Thai authorities use the Computer Crimes Act and article 112 of the penal code on lese majeste (insulting the monarchy) to enforce online censorship and persecute dissidents, particularly those connected with the UDD, accusing them of promoting anti-monarchy sentiments and threatening national security. The National Human Rights Commission estimates that there were more than 400 lese majeste cases in 2010, nearly a threefold increase from the 164 cases in the previous year.

Abuses in the Southern Border Provinces

Since January 2004, Thailand's southern border provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat have been the scene of a brutal internal armed conflict. More than 90 percent of the 4,000 people killed have been civilians, from both the ethnic Thai Buddhist and ethnic Malay Muslim communities. The Pejuang Kemerdekaan Patani insurgents in the loose network of National Revolution Front-Coordinate use violence to drive out the Thai Buddhist population, keep Malay Muslims under control, and discredit the Thai authorities.

The government's counterinsurgency campaign has been characterized by extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detention, and torture. In some instances, these abuses were reprisals for insurgent attacks on the Thai Buddhist population and security personnel. State agencies at all levels, including the newly created Southern Border Provinces Administration Center, have failed to hold abusive officials accountable. No member of the security forces, either from regular or volunteer units, has been prosecuted for human rights abuses in the southern border provinces.

Thai authorities have also failed to resolve satisfactorily any of the enforced disappearance cases, including the "disappearance" and presumed murder of the prominent Muslim lawyer Somchi Neelapaijit by a group of police officers in March 2004. The Emergency Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situation, enforced in the southern border provinces since 2005, gives government officials and security personnel effective immunity from prosecution for most acts committed while enforcing the decree.

Abusive "War on Drugs"

Thailand continues to face a boom in the use and trafficking of methamphetamines. For that reason, harsh measures against traffickers are politically popular. During the 2003 "war on drugs" campaign of then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's government, thousands of people across Thailand were killed and many more were arbitrarily arrested.

The 2007 Independent Committee for the Investigation, Study and Analysis of the Formulation and Implementation of Narcotic Suppression Policy found that the policy formulation and assessment of the "war on drugs" were driven by all-out efforts to achieve the campaign's political goals rather than respecting human rights and due process of law. The committee recommended further inquiry into the killings of 2,819 people during the "war on drugs." Prime Minister Abhisit's government announced support for reopening those cases. But his government then made almost no progress in bringing those responsible to justice, or in ending systematic police brutality and the abuse of power in drug suppression operations.

There are also concerns regarding the policy that subjects drug users to compulsory treatment at facilities run by the military and the Interior Ministry. Each year, 10,000 to 15,000 people are sent to such centers, where drug treatment is based on boot-camp-style physical exercise. Most people sent there experience withdrawal from drugs with little or no medical supervision or medication.

The deal behind Thailand's polls

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MF30Ae01.html

ASIA HAND  The deal behind Thailand's polls  By Shawn W Crispin  BANGKOK - High-level secret talks between Thailand's royal palace, military and self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra point towards a stable outcome to this Sunday's highly anticipated election. Contrary to widespread speculation of a post-poll coup and new rounds of street violence, the military is more likely to stay in the barracks if Thaksin's Puea Thai party wins and forms a new government.  Puea Thai has surged ahead in pre-election polls, holding sway in its geographical strongholds and taking the lead in pivotal swing constituencies. The party has rallied around Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, a political novice whose campaign has focused on the need for national reconciliation. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has acknowledged his Democrats trail in opinion surveys, and party members seem increasingly resigned to a second-place finish.  It's a popular result the country's royalist establishment appears to have anticipated. According to sources familiar with the dialogue, Thaksin interlocutor Wattana Muangsook, Queen Sirikit's lady-in-waiting Jarungjit Thikara and Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan met in Brunei in February to discuss post-poll scenarios. There have been subsequent meetings between the three camps, including one in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, according to the same sources.  The talks have aimed to avoid new confrontation and foster reconciliation after last year's anti-government "red shirt" street protests and military crackdown resulted in the deaths of 91 people, mostly civilians. They also signal the potential building blocks of a wider accommodation between Thaksin's camp and at least one section of the royalist establishment concerning the looming royal succession from 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej to heir apparent Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.  According to a source familiar with the talks, the military has agreed to allow Puea Thai to form a new elected government unopposed in exchange for a vow from Thaksin not to pursue political revenge or legal prosecutions of top military officials behind the 2006 coup and last year's crackdown, and to refrain broadly from intervening in military affairs, including the annual reshuffle that determines the army's leadership. Army Commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha, a palace favorite and member of the elite Queen's Guard, is eligible to serve three more years in his position.  Thaksin's representative has also been pressed at the talks to rein in the anti-monarchy elements in his camp, including ranking members of his aligned United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group and Puea Thai party, according to the sources. Many royalists believe the UDD's overseas chapters are mainly responsible for the flood of anti-monarchy material that in recent years have been posted anonymously to the Internet.  Fronted by Abhisit's administration, the royal establishment's crackdown on freedoms in the name of defending the monarchy has undermined its international credibility and hit its domestic popularity, witnessed in the Democrat party's apparent flagging support among Bangkok's middle classes after carrying the capital convincingly at the post-coup 2007 polls.  The suppression has given some currency to Puea Thai's calls for democracy, despite Thaksin's own authoritarian record and the party's many highly placed gangster politicians. The Democrats have been at pains to counter perceptions that they have served at the military's pleasure, including by whitewashing its role in killing unarmed UDD protestors during last year's crackdown. Nobody on either side has been brought to account for the violence.  To put reconciliation efforts on a new track, the three sides to the secret dialogue have discussed the formation of a new independent commission whose recommendations, including a potential amnesty for Thaksin, Abhisit and the military, would eventually be put to a national referendum. Surakiart Sathirathai, a foreign minister under Thaksin and known royalist through his family connections, has apparently been agreed to lead the panel. The election deal, which evolved over a series of talks, builds on an earlier accommodation reached with Thaksin in October last year. That negotiated de-escalation in tensions saw the UDD sharply circumscribe its protest activities, while officials stopped without explanation their earlier bids to extradite Thaksin from exile in Dubai. It also allowed Thaksin access to the 30 billion baht (US$1 billion) of his assets not confiscated in last year's Supreme Court decision that sparked the UDD's nine-week protest.  Meltdown scenarios  Whether the deal holds up after the polls will depend on several mutable factors. Judging by the frequent failure of previous informal and formal talks held since the 2006 military coup, the potential for another meltdown cannot be ruled out.  People familiar with the secret talks believe that Yingluck's campaign emphasis on reconciliation, and Thaksin's and UDD leader Thida Thavornseth's recent public pledges of allegiance to the constitutional monarchy, have deliberately signaled commitment to the deal. Nor have they rallied around jailed UDD co-leader and Puea Thai party list politician Jatuporn Prompan, who was detained after making comments perceived as critical of royal family during a UDD rally in April.  However, people familiar with the talks suggest Thaksin's commitment could falter once his sister and allies - assuming, as opinion polls suggest, Puea Thai wins the election - are firmly in power with a democratic mandate. His negotiating leverage, including for his own amnesty and political rehabilitation, will be significantly enhanced if Puea Thai wins in a landslide and is able to form a majority government without coalition partners.  Previous behind-the-scenes talks, including an April 2010 meeting between Bangkok governor and Democrat politician Sukhumbhand Paribatra and Thaksin in Brunei in the wake of protest-related violence that resulted in deaths on both sides, have seen Thaksin back away from stated commitments. Similar backtracking was apparent in May 2010 when UDD leaders agreed to dissolve their protest in exchange for early polls but reneged after Thaksin balked.  Just as significant is whether the royal establishment is unified in doing a deal with Thaksin for the sake of stability. It's unclear how King Bhumibol's royal advisory Privy Council would react to any reconciliation proposal that grants Thaksin amnesty for earlier court decisions, including a criminal corruption conviction, and allows for his return to Thailand. While both Prayuth and Thaksin have been vocal during the campaign, the Privy Council has been conspicuous in its silence.  It seems apparent that one side of the royal establishment is keeping its options open for another judicial intervention that could dissolve any Puea Thai-led government soon after it is formed. Thai courts brought down two Thaksin-aligned governments in 2008, paving the way for Abhisit's rise to power through what many believe was a military-influenced parliamentary vote. In 2007, a military-appointed tribune ruled to dissolve Thaksin's first political party, Thai Rak Thai, and ban 111 of its senior executives from politics for five years.  Democrat party politician Kiat Sittheeamorn intimated during a recent presentation to foreign reporters that his party would challenge a Puea Thai win on the grounds that Thaksin has illegally served as the party's leader as a banned politician. Puea Thai has campaigned on the motto "Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts" and Thaksin has admitted in press interviews that he personally has devised many of the party's policies. There is also a potential case brewing against Yingluck that may accuse her of perjury in one of Thaksin's asset trials.  Some political analysts read special relevance into King Bhumibol's speech last week to newly appointed judges, advising them to be vigilant and impartial in serving the nation. His previous speeches to judges have come ahead of pivotal court decisions, including ones that have gone against Thaksin and his aligned political parties. Although King Bhumibol at present confined to a wheelchair due to health complications, a family member has said he is on a recuperation course to begin walking again by July.  King Bhumibol's upright presence is significant. A previous signature campaign organized by the UDD calling for a royal pardon for Thaksin fell on deaf palace ears. The Democrats have bid to leverage into that royal position and have campaigned on a "no amnesty" policy. Yet the three-way secret talks indicate that another side of the establishment sees the need for reconciliation with Thaksin's camp and has apparently lost faith in the Democrats' ability to protect the continuity of its interests after the highly revered King Bhumibol passes.  Earlier this year, there was widespread speculation that Prayuth could move to topple Abhisit to halt his early election plan. Others interpreted the sudden outbreak of armed hostilities with Cambodia in February as the military stoking a national security related pretext to subvert the polls. But while the military is widely viewed as on the ascendency, through rising budgets and policy independence, there are parallel indications of erratic behavior that show it feels more cornered than confident as it becomes more deeply entrenched in daily politics.  According to one military insider with access to top generals, Prayuth and his deputies view another coup as unviable due to the potential for a popular uprising and more bloodshed. Army chief-of-staff Daopong Rattanasuwon, who has been instrumental in army crackdowns on the UDD, recently indicated in private the need to co-exist peacefully with Puea Thai. The top brass, meanwhile, are reportedly "horizon scanning" for scenarios to burnish the military's public image and to step back from politics while maintaining enough power to intervene in case of a threat to the monarchy, including during the succession.  On one horizon is the idea that a deal with Thaksin could represent the best hope for containing the anti-monarchy sentiments unleashed by radical elements in the UDD. While Thaksin was accused of disloyalty to the crown by the 2006 coup-makers, his still close ties to heir apparent Vajiralongkorn could be leveraged to build popular support for the succession - rather than the other way around. The two have met several times since the 2006 coup, including in recent months in Munich, Germany, according to one Bangkok-based diplomat.  While the three-way secret talks point towards a smooth democratic transition and new hope for national reconciliation after this weekend's elections, there are still several potential dark clouds on the political horizon. The one thing Thailand's six-year-old political conflict has demonstrated clearly is that there are no permanent friends, enemies or deals, and thus new bouts of instability cannot be ruled out.  Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-29/thai-voters-may-test-military-s-willingness-to-let-thaksin-allies-govern.html

Thai Voters May Test Military's Willingness to Let Thaksin Allies Govern

By Daniel Ten Kate - Jun 29, 2011 12:00 PM CT

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Opinion polls show the party allied to deposed Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra is heading for victory in the July 3 election. Once the votes are counted, there's no guarantee it will be allowed to rule.

Pheu Thai is ahead of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's Democrats by as much as 18 points, lifted by Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra, its new leader. The prospect of Thaksin allies gaining power three years after he fled a jail term for abuse of power charges is fueling concern unrest may erupt after the election. Protests left more than 90 people dead last year.

The fourth election in seven years may test the willingness of the army and royalist elite to accept the result in a country where 10 coups since 1932 underscore the challenge of delivering a stable democracy, said Paul Chambers, research director at Payap University inChiang Mai. At stake is Thailand's legacy of sustaining economic growth and an influx of foreign investment from companies including Ford Motor Co. and Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)

"A Pheu Thai government would soon lead to demonstrations" by an anti-Thaksin movement in alliance with the military and royalists, Chambers said. "This would bring out Red Shirt demonstrators and the result would be political pandemonium," he said, referring to Thaksin supporters who wear red in reaction to the yellow shirts worn by his opponents.

Standing next to a mall in downtown Bangkok torched after a Red Shirt protest a year ago, Abhisit told a rally June 23 that Pheu Thai was inciting its supporters to march on the capital if they win a plurality but fail to form a government. Yingluck, in an interview this month, said she would seek to rectify injustices since the coup if she won.

Military Message

A poll released June 19 by the Bangkok-based Suan Dusit Rajabhat University showed Pheu Thai with 52 percent of the vote and the Democrats with 34 percent. Of the 500 parliamentary seats up for grabs, 375 are chosen in districts and 125 through proportional representation. The poll surveyed 102,994 people and had a margin of error of plus or minus 7 to 10 percentage points.

The military "will use any institution," including the Election Commission and courts, to thwart a Pheu Thai win, retired General Pathompong Kesornsuk, an ex-adviser to the Thai Armed Forces Command who helped lead anti-Thaksin protests in 2008, said by phone. "The military will try the way that legitimizes the second party to form the government."

Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha urged Thailand's 47.3 million voters this month not to pick the "same thing" in elections, the last four of which have been won by Thaksin loyalists. "You should think about how to make our country safe, how to make the royal institution safe, how good people will run the country," he said in a June 14 interview broadcast on two army-controlled television stations.

Royal Transition

Prayuth's comments "show some anxiety, not only among the military but also among royal circles as well," Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies inSingapore, said by phone. The traditional elite "want to make sure they have their own people in charge" in case the next government oversees the royal transition, he said.

Since taking the throne in 1946, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 83, who has been in hospital for 21 months, has been head of state through more than 20 prime ministers and nine coups. Since the 2006 coup, courts have disbanded two parties tied to Thaksin and disqualified two prime ministers backed by his allies.

Political Jockeys

Of Thailand's 27 prime ministers since absolute monarchy ended in 1932, 12 have been military leaders, including Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, a group of advisers to King Bhumibol. Two months before the 2006 coup, Prem said soldiers were like horses owned by the king, with governments serving as jockeys for a short time.

Jatuporn Prompan, a Red Shirt who is running as a Pheu Thai candidate, was jailed on May 12 after his bail was revoked for a speech insulting the royal family. Lese-majeste offenders face as many as 15 years in jail for defaming, insulting or threatening the king, queen, heir apparent or regent.

The specter of post-election violence has knocked 3.8 percent off the benchmark SET Index this month, the most among Southeast Asia's biggest markets. Investors have pulled more than $953 million from Thai stocks this month.

Thai Airways International Pcl (THAI) has dropped 20 percent in that time, and Minor International Pcl (MINT), the biggest operator of hotel resorts, has declined 6.6 percent. Tourism comprises about 7 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product.

Free Electricity

Abhisit became prime minister in a parliament vote in 2008, two weeks after a court disbanded the ruling pro-Thaksin party for election fraud. The move came amid protests by the Yellow Shirts who seized the prime minister's office complex and stormed Bangkok's airports demanding the pro-Thaksin government resign.

The Abhisit-Thaksin showdown reflects a regional divide between a better-off south and a poorer north and northeast, from where Thaksin hails and where average income is about one third that in Bangkok. Abhisit's party has promised a 25 percent increase in the minimum wage and crop price guarantees in an effort to win support in Thaksin's stronghold. Fifty-two percent of the population resides in the north and northeast.

Opponents of Thaksin, who founded what became Thailand's biggest mobile phone company, view him as a corrupt billionaire who aims to topple the monarchy and regain power from abroad, where he fled after his 2008 conviction. His supporters remain loyal after he gave them affordable health care and cheap loans.

While the Thaksin-backed party won 148 of 210 seats in the north and northeast in the 2007 election, the Democrats won 76 of 92 in the south and Bangkok. Overall, the Democrats finished with 34 percent of seats and Thaksin's allies with 49 percent.

'Go Underground'

If Pheu Thai fails to secure a majority, it would need to rely on smaller parties that won 17 percent of seats in the 2007 election to form a government. The party blamed army meddling for the 2008 parliamentary vote in which its coalition partners and a group of Thaksin defectors switched sides to give the premiership to Abhisit.

Military leaders want "a special government sent down from the top, instead of the people's will," Jakrapob Penkair, a former spokesman for Thaksin's government who fled Thailand in 2009 after being accused of insulting the monarchy, said by e- mail. "More people will go underground if indeed a coup happens or our side is obviously cheated."