Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Interesting info from Thai Intelligence News Web

Interesting info from Thai Intelligence News

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Abhisit Screw Thai Intelligence on Tight

My humble love to my Siamese cats intelligence apparatus for being so fun to watch and think about

By Stingray, this blog national security journalist

The intelligence and national security war in Thailand is being "Squeezed for Performance" by Abhisit, Thailand's prime minister.

"Utter failure," is the term foreign intelligence are using to describe Thailand's intelligence and national security apparatus. The implication may be significant, as it could actually indicate a rift in the Thai intelligence and national security apparatus, against Abhisit, said other intelligence analyst however.

  • Indicating either an utter failure or a shifting of position, was made by Anupong, Thailand's military chief that is propping up Abhisit, who sits at the military intelligence directorate and unexpectedly came out to protect Chaovalit, a Red Shirt sympathizer who competes with Anupong, indirectly, by saying the military was not involved in the bombing of the Yellow Shirt-as the Yellow Shirt accused Chaovalit as doing.
  • The move follows Abhisit's order for psychological warfare specialist to make contact with the grassroots, with a 2 billion baht budget, but against Abhisit's expectations, the contact failed to win much grassroots towards Abhisit.
  • Then, while suspecting violent at the recent Yellow Shirt gathering, an emergency decree was not put into effect, leaving the gathering vulnerable. Even warning from senior military officers that violence will most likely occur, Abvhisit took no action.
  • The Cambodians exposure of a Thai spy ring inside Cambodia, caused further embarrassments for Abhisit, and it is now a major diplomatic foot-ball between the two countries.
  • Then a Thai police chief boss appointment, became a tug or war between Abhisit and Anupong-that ended up is total ruins for both sides, as far as the public is concerned.

Abhisit told Matichon, a local newspaper today, that he has ordered the Thai intelligence and national security apparatus to improve their performances, but in fact, Abhisit also appointed a supplement or replacement, or otherwise, to his inner circle of intelligence and national security people, and alienating Suthep, who is in charged of national security for Abhisit.

These moves, indicates, some type of re-alignment that are occurring inside the nerve center of Thailand's military thinking-which as always, is deeply involved in politics.

Measuring the actual re-alignment is difficult at best.

Foreign intelligence analyst told this blog, one thing is certain and that is the relationship between Abhisit and Anupong is cutting deep into the negative territory. "Anupong is not expected to become an open ally of Taksin, however, a parallel is being noted, and we are sure Abhisit can see it also.

Earlier, Anupong's front man in Thai politics, Nevin, asked Taksis to help out with the captured Thai spy in Cambodia, and within minutes, Taksin tweeted that he was ready to help. Nevin and Taksin have shared a long very close relationship. However, Nevin, under pressure from Anupong, defected to Abhisit.

"They are clearly reading the same script," said the intelligence source. Meanwhile, Suthep, came out today to say that the government welcomes Taksin help to free the spy, indicating yet again that Abhisit's strong position against the Cambodians are being softened by Anupong.

About 50 of Thai retired very senior military also have joinned Taksin, leaving Anupong in a vulnerable position and pulling a great deal of military thinking with them. Many analyst expects Taksin to hit hard at Anupong if he ever returns to power in Thailand, and that is a major risk that Auupong feels.

However, one intelligence analyst said Taksin is not interested in prosecuting Anupong, but only in competing with Anupong fairly. "If Taksin forces Anupong's hand, Anupong will react, but if Anupong forces Taksin's hands, taksin will react," said the source.

As Thai Rath, the mass circulated noted today, some circles in the Thai military have started to consider a coup. And typically, the Thai intelligence apparatus, have been used as the critical juncture of any coup in Thailand.

Total Failure or smart as hell, you be the judge.

And by the way, before we forget, we know of the wider implications and the other players also, but we were asked by a classified organization, not to expose them-and we comply humbly. But for our readers, our advice is to read Thai Rath.

Posted by: thaiintelligentnews | November 18, 2009

Far Right Media Put Thai Spy Life at Risk

I am at a lost of how to help my Siamese spies

by Frank, this blog political journalist

The headline today in Matichon and Nation says, "Stink, Cambodians rush court case, plan quick pardon on Thai spy in a plot to build Taksin as a Super-Hero in Thailand." 

In the world of intelligence, there are two theories when dealing with captured spies, and that is to first keep the issue out of the newspapers because it influences the governments involved, then it is to quietly negotiate an exchange. Then, the last method is to use all out pressure to get a release, but that is seldom done, because spies are considered enemy of state.

As an example, during the Iran Hostage crisis, the Iranians slowly released those hostage that the families asked for the Iranian help, and they were released. However, some families of hostages criticized the Iranians, and they were the last to be released.

But here in Thailand, if you read Matichon or the Nation, you must wonder if they are interested in securing a release of a spy, or are they interested in prosecuting their arch-enemy, Taksin.

You see Taksin visited Cambodia and the Nation reported that Thai Intelligence were following him. Then the spy was caught. That came after an open warning on Taksin life from Taksin's enemies in Thailand. And while Taksin was Thailand's prime minister, three assasinations attempts on Taksin's like that was linked to Thai Intelligence apparatus are on record.

So the family of the spy asked Taksin to help. And Taksin, who is close to Cambodia, got the Cambodians to allow the spy to call his mother.

Even after that, today, many Thai media are running stories that Taksin intends to help free the spy to gain points with Thai voters and become a "Super-Hero."

But the Thai press forgets that in going after Taksin, it said the Cambodians justice system will rush the case and a pardoned granted.

Given the sensitive nature of Thai Cambodian relations, with the Cambodian watching Thai press and the Thai press watching Cambodia, this sends a very "Insulting and Negative" message to the Cambodians.

We at this blog does not give a damn about the political interplay and geo-politics that is going on, but we absolutely care for the spy and his family.

We just want to point out to Matichon and the Nation, that a life and his family is on the line, and the objective is to secure a release, not using it to attack Taksin.

We want to caution and point out to both Matichon and the Nation that for Cambodia, not to use national security laws agsint the spy, but instead to have given him a court process, in the intelligence community, that is a "Grace" in itself.

This blog's advice to both Matichon and Nation is, as we here believe in freedom of expression, both of your position on attacking Tasin is acceptable and fair game.

But for god's or Bhudha's sake, think of what you are doing to the spy and his family.

Run the plot story, you have the right, but "After" the release OK. We here at this blog beg you to just tone down the Taksin attack for now. Plot or no plot, he is helping, but if the Cambodians says "No" what on earth can Taksin do then.

Posted by: thaiintelligentnews | November 17, 2009

Red Shirt Targets 1 Million Thais Mass Rally

I want you to join this rally

By Frank and Stingray, this blog political and national security journalist

Preliminary reports indicates the Red Shirts are planning a protest, with the target of 1 million Thais joining the protest, towards the start of December.

The move confirms the Red Shirt intentions to forge ahead, putting aside earlier reports of caution. It is yet to be seen however, how firm the Red Shirt will carry-through this mass rally.

The government had been using the Yellow Shirt to head-off this Red Shirt gathering, originally planned for this month, by building nationalism and extreme royalism that accumulated into a Yellow Shirt rally just days ago.

While attracting some 20,000 rally goers, mostly bused in from the government stronghold of Southern Thailand, Thai political analyst said the rally was a "Total Failure" given the level of nationalism and exterme royalism being hype up by the government.

The Yellow Shirt, very much like the Red Shirt now, said before that 20,000 show rally, said it would get about 1 million Thais.

The Red Shirt move, comes after a long running battle at the grassroots level in Thailand. Much of the Red Shirt support are from the grassroots.

Earlier intelligence reports, as reported by the blog, reported that the Thai government have instructed the Thai's army psychological warfare specialist to make contact with the grassroots. This blog have earlier report on this movement, but the summarize, about 20,000 villages were visited by the psychological warfare specialist, and spent the government allocated about 2 billion baht.

It appears now, if the Red Shirt succeeds with the gathering, that the combination of government economics policy targeting to the grassroots and the psychoilogical warfare efforts, may have not worked.

The grassroots continues to see Taksin, a leader of the Red Shirt, as the symbol of hope and prosperity. 

The Red Shirt move comes on-top of a fund-raising gathering that intelligence source told this blog, have exceeded targets.

The Intelligence source told this blog the Red Shirt have been building support at the grassroots level for the past three months, in an attempt to counter the military moves.

The source said the target may appear lofty, however, the Red Shirt have demonstrated the ability to call a convergence of 100,000 supporters, within a few days, and a with a long running campaign such as it had been doing, the target 1 million may be achievable.

If that many Thais join in the rally, it would be second to only to the 16 th of October revolution that toppled the Thanom, dictatorship. The numbers of protest in subsequent protest that topplled other dictators have never been estimated and confirmed.

The source said the objective appears to be to topple the current government, and election called.

While nationalism and extreme royalism, is rampant in Thailand currently, the Red Shirt, in this action to topple the government, may indicate the Red Shirt are confident of winning an election.

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Posted in Thailand

Posted by: thaiintelligentnews | November 16, 2009

Explosion Puts Thailand in a Flux

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My Siamese cats are used to bombs

 By Frank, this blog's political journalist

Explosion Goes Off:

When bombs goes off as the Yellow Shirt icon of Thai nationalism and extreme royalism is on stage hyping up nationalism and extreme royalism, at a  mass rally, it indicates Thailand is in a "Wild Card" stage.

The bomb could have been a "Ploy" or the result of a "Third Column" instgators, however, five people were injured at the back-stage, where the leaders of the Yellow Shirt gathered. 

The poll says the Thai support for the government's position on Cambodia has plunged from about 80% to current 50%. Support for aggressive moves is at about 20% and to cool down is at about 20%. Asked about the way out of the conflict, most Thai said negotiations.

Nationalism and concern is at 70%, with the polls saying they love and worry about Thailand.

The Globe:

Outside Thailand, it is a different story as Thai Rath, a mass circulated daily, said ASEAN does not support the Thai position on Cambodia, and globally it is very much the same. The Thai poll also said most Thai believe what is occuring is pre-plannned political moves.

Thailand's charmanship of ASEAN ends in about a month, and the Thailand's government propaganda machine is expected to be unable to contain information flow, and the Thais may face some un-pleasent facts.

Taksin, after being nearly assisinated and his private jet forced to land in Thailand by the Thai airforce's F-16, remain free and his strategy from this point forward, is a major question mark. Cambodia's intelligence exposing a Thai spy ring complicates the matter and remain a sparking point between the Thai and Cambodians.

At Thai Rath's cutting edge political analysis, it said the Red Shirt have gained global support but have lost in Thailand. Yesterday, the sentense of a lese majeste ioffender in Thailand was reduced to 2 years and several bans on liberal websites lifted in the past week. Several of extreme right wing press have also started to take a neutural position, such as the Bangkok Post.

Thailand's Global Economy:

Thailand's GDP is now about 70% tied to the globe, and while political newspapers are calling for Thai business people to put nationalism above business, at several of Thailand's business papers with strong link to the far right, have been calling for negotiations, between Abhisit, thailand's prime minister and Hun Sen, Cambodia's prime minister.

However, the Thai government, while in the opposition, called Hun Sen a "Cheap Thug" and Hun Sen, reportedly have "Had It" with Abhisit.

Yet a severe internal back-lash on Thailand's liberal thinking could occur. The conservative Thai military remains a loose cannon as always and an ultimate and total solution is always a threat in Thailand, with the decision laying between the level of unrest and economics impact considerations.

Taksin's Cambodia Visit:

Most local press have been running stories even before the Taksin visited Cambodia that the government will hype un nationalism and royalism to shore up failing support where before the Cambodian crisis, stood at 20%, falling below Taksin's at about 25%

The Yellow Shirt, a group of nationalistic and extreme royalist, which at times co-ordinate its activity with the government, but reserves the right also to compete, have been holding a major rally today-in an attempt to build popularity to its movement, but also broader towards the right-wing control of Thailand.

Situation Fluid:

The Thai situation is expected to be highly fluid, as the Red Shirt, a liberal force in Thailand, have planned major rallies this month to outs the current government. The Yellow Shirt move is clearly being used by the government to head-off those Red Shirt activities.

Yesterday the Red Shirt held a major funding drive, which intelligence source told this blog have exceeded targets. The funds are targeted to support those Red Shirt rallies against the government.

Red Shirt Cautious:

The latest signals from the Red Shirt is mixed, indicating uncertainty. However, the polls are in the early stages of going their way, as earlier 80% right wing support falling to the current 70% and calls for negotiation gaining support, acrossd the board.

The red Shirt also now have substantial financial firepower for long-lasting rallies. As always, the Red Shirt, tactics calls for peaceful movements, and that reluctant is tied to that policy, as the Yellow Shirt are highly violent and risk taking.

Of note also is that Taksin is now entirely in Thailand's most respected institution fold and a confrontation between the Red and Yellow could hurt chances of a strong recovery. Taksin is highly sensitive towards criticism of not being royal.

Government on the Offense:

To summarize at this point, the Yellow and the government are on an offensive with the Red Shirt gaining strengths but reluctant. Complicating the matted is that Cambodia's tie-in to the picture. The Cambodians have cooled down but the Thai government intends on keeping the issue as a lever to manage nationalism.

Red Shirt Gets Allies:

Coming to reinforce the Red Shirt is an early stage of an alliance between the Thai students movement and labor. It is yet to be seen if and how this student labor link-tie in with the Red Shirt. Yesterday, the student and laboe issued a statement against nationalism and extreme royalism hype. The key question is, will they come to the Red Shirt calling?

On Abhisit's Mind:

While Taksin is expected to let the situation developed naturally, with thoughts on the  health issue, Abhisit is thinking about an election.

Thai Rath reports that Abhisit is in a diffucult situation as the Yellow Shirt are cutting deep into Abhisit Democrats's voter based, giving Taksin an advantage, even with failing popularity. And if the right wing wins, the Yellow Shirt inclusion in the expected government is expected to alienate the globe further.

The Taksin supported opposition, anticipates an election early next year, after Vietnam which is close to Cambodia becomes the chairman of ASEAN, internal bickering of the Abhisit government reaches fruition-one way or another, and a no confidence censure against the government by the opposition.

Early signals of a severe rift between Abhisit and Sondhi, head of the Yello Shirt is starting to emerged, as Manager Wekkly, the brain and nerve center of Sondhi, have started to run policy statements that is breaking ranks and hitting at the heart of Abhisit's propaganda.

Already the race between Abhisit and the Yellow to grab nationalism and extreme royalism vote have started.

Summary:

You make the call.


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