Saturday, April 24, 2010

ANALYSIS: Pressure builds on Thailand's Oxford-educated premier


ANALYSIS: Pressure builds on Thailand's Oxford-educated premier

By Peter Janssen Apr 23, 2010, 10:03 GMT

Bangkok - As Thailand tumbles towards anarchy and a possible upheaval of the status quo, Abhisit Vejjajiva - the country's articulate, Oxford-educated prime minister - is under growing pressure to act.

For the past six weeks, Bangkok has witnessed an unprecedented anti-government movement seize the commercial heart of the capital, leading to escalating violence between troops and protestors that has already claimed 26 lives.

A solution to the standoff via negotiations failed last month but is not out of the question. Mediators are desperately trying to bring both sides back to the table, but much depends on the 45-year-old Abhisit.

'I think peace is in his hands,' said Gothom Arya, a respected former election commissioner who is trying to mediate a political compromise between the governmentand the protestors.

Gothom has tabled a proposal for discussion between Abhisit and the protestors that includes a dissolution of the house within five months, and the setting up of an independent commission for political reform which might even touch on the sensitive issue of the monarchy.

It is currently the only peaceful solution on the table, other than Abhisit bowing to the protestors' demand that he immediately dissolve parliament and hold new elections.

The showdown between the government and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), better known as the red shirts for their trademark protest clothing, has reached boiling point.

Blood has already been spilt on both sides.

On April 10, government troops were dispatched to Phan Fa Bridge in the old part of Bangkok, where the UDD had been holding protests since March 12, to clear the area of demonstrators.

They ran into stiff resistance from the red shirts, some of whom were armed with grenade launchers and assault rifles. The ensuring street battle claimed 25 lives, including those of five soldiers, and left more than 840 injured. The government troops retreated.

Then on Thursday night, grenade attacks on civilians on Silom Road, in the heart of Bangkok's financial district, left one dead and 86 wounded. It is not known who was behind the attack.

Anti-government demonstrations are the norm in Thailand's recent political history, but the current red shirt movement has been unique in several respects.

Firstly, never before have protestors from the provinces flocked to the capital is such numbers to air their grievances. At least 30 per cent of the UDD hard-core followers come from rural areas, while the remainder mostly come from Bangkok's urban poor or lower middle class, many of whom have rural roots. Past political movements in Bangkok have been led by students or members of the metropolitan middle class.

Secondly, past protests have usually been on the receiving end of the guns, not firing them. In this case, there have been about 40 unexplained attacks on army and government installations, in parallel with the UDD demonstrations. On Thursday, civilians were also targeted.

The red shirts comprise different groups, ranging from genuine devotees of liberaldemocratic principles to dangerous characters with past military experience, according to the government's assessment.

Thirdly, while previous protests have been opposed to military rule or corrupt politicians, this is the first movement that comes close to being a popular uprising against the entire establishment.

Leaders of the UDD have used unusually strong rhetoric at their protests, calling for an overthrow of the 'ammat' or bureaucratic elite, for a 'class war' and a 'people's revolution.'

The UDD blames General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 82, for orchestrating the September 19, 2006 military coup that toppled their political hero, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin, a former billionaire tycoon, put in place populist policies during his two-term premiership between 2001 and 2006 that won the hearts of the rural and urban poor and gave them a sense of political entitlement they now miss and want to regain.

The red shirts want polls because they are confident their political arm, the Puea Thai opposition party, would win, given the immense popularity of Thaksin and his political allies.

But a return to power by an elected pro-Thaksin government is a threat to the so-called political elite, which was arguably responsible for his removal from power and the two-year jail term on abuse of power charges, which turned him into a fugitive.

Some political observers see this as more reason for Abhisit, himself a product of the Bangkok elite who appears to have the trust of the military and monarchists, to take a lead in initiating the political reforms the red shirts are calling for.

These include a reform of the monarchy, which is currently protected by one of the world's toughest lese majeste laws.

'If Abhisit had moral courage, he would talk to the king privately and announce the measures (for reform),' said Sulak Sivaraksa, a well-known social activist and a proponent of modernizing the monarchy.

'If it comes from him, it will be much more important than if it comes from the red shirts,' Sulak said.


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