Thailand: No longer the land of smiles? | ||
| Aug. 10 2010 - 04:00 am View comments (0) | ||
While Thailand's reputation as 'the land of smiles' is a cliché, the recent images of violence and unrest in Bangkok have been a shocking contrast to its reputation as a stable regional travel and business hub.Marianna Brungs, who was an Australian diplomat based in Bangkok from 2005-2008, has written a paper (PDF - 19 pages) for Chatham House (AKA Royal Institute of International Affairs). The introduction:
Bangkok's streets have been cleaned up and normal life has resumed, but political instability is likely to continue in Thailand for some time. The conflict has moved beyond the initial 'colour- coded' tension between yellow and red shirts. There is now a sharp divide between the conservative elites who have traditionally governed Thailand – palace, military, business – and those who view themselves as the underclass.
The recent round of protests in May 2010 were won by the conservative powers, albeit with significant costs in lives and damaged buildings in Bangkok. But the struggle is far from over – rather than capitulating, the protest movement is using the military crackdown and the government's continuing media and political repression to increase its support.
The former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and his associates played a key role in turning the urban and rural poor in Thailand into a political force. In the build-up to the recent violence, it seemed that the protest movement was progressing beyond Thaksin to emerge as the new face of democracy in Thailand, with the movement developing into an ideological struggle between the traditional elites, fighting to maintain their position and status, and a broader social movement rising from pro-Thaksin groupings. Thaksin, however, did not plan to disappear so quickly. He has continued to play a key role in the protest movement, and by focusing on his own agenda – regaining his assets and political power – has to some extent stymied the protest movement's progress towards more inclusive democracy and greater equality.
But Thaksin cannot carry the full blame for the ongoing instability. By generally dismissing the real issues underlying the protest movement and the need for these to be addressed through genuine reforms, the traditional powers have exacerbated class divisions and provided ample political space for Thaksin and his associates to operate. The best chance of survival for the conservative elites may be to undertake genuine political, social and economic reforms, including early elections. While the government promised social justice, political reforms and an impartial investigation following the violence, its willingness to use military force, plus its continuing crackdown on media associated with the protest movement, and its reluctance to hold early elections have made these promises seem hollow. The protest movement has rejected the government's current reconciliation plan as insincere and partisan.
The international community should consider the role it can play in helping to bridge the divide. It may not be possible to act immediately, given the sensitivity and fragility of current dynamics, but key international partners such as the US, EU, UK and Australia should look for future opportunities to persuade Thai leaders of the benefits of reform. Without such reforms, the potential future scenarios are bleak – Thailand's economy and regional status are likely to deteriorate further and the West could lose a once strong and stable ally in the region.
BP: Some interesting points in the paper (PDF - 19 pages).
One point that the paper mentions is the opposition is factionalized, this is true, but it does not mean that it is all plain sailing for the government, principally because damage to the Democrats' chances at the next election is most likely to be caused not by the opposition, but by the Democrats themselves, their coalition partners (Bhum Jai Thai are poaching not just opposition MPs, but also coalition MPs) and the PAD (who are trying to push Abhisit towards their position by protesting and running candidates in upcoming local elections).
This is not to say that the government is about to collapse, it is not. Nevertheless, you can see increasing discontent directed at the Democrats from some of their supporters/those on the PAD fringe. Now, for a long time this was not a serious issue as the PAD were not intent on making it one. However, the protest against the government on the weekend and the continued raising of Preah Vihear is likely to be the first of many issues raised by the PAD.
Next, it is likely to be the CNG buses and so on. How far will the PAD push it and how will Abhisit respond? This is what we need to watch.
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