Bangkok now a key battleground for the election
Democrats need to win the hearts of voters in the capital if they are to have any chance of remaining in power
For him, winning in the city would be a redemption if his Democrat Party loses to Pheu Thai in the provinces, which is an increasingly likely scenario. For Pheu Thai, recapturing Bangkok would go a long way to re-establishing itself as the real democratic force of the Kingdom.Bangkok, always important to Thai politics, will be immensely so in the upcoming election. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva could never understate that fact when he said during the past week that poll results in the capital would hold the key to Thailand's future.
Opinion polls conducted in the wake of the House dissolution and election candidacy registrations showed an alarming sign for the Democrats, who led in previous Bangkok surveys but have found themselves trailing by quite a shocking margin. One of the most significant details provided by those polls, however, had to do with the very large number of "undecided" voters, who in some surveys accounted for more than 50 per cent of those sampled. How these members of "the silent majority" will affect the election on July 3 is one of the biggest questions at the moment.
In the past, Bangkok always meant political insurance - or lack thereof - for ruling parties. Any government that consisted mainly of parties representing provincial constituents was often shaky and short-lived. Banharn Silapa-archa's and Chavalit Yongchaiyuth's administrations were most recent examples of that. The political dominance of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party in the early 2000s had a lot to do with the newly-launched political camp's high popularity in Bangkok. There is much truth in the saying that provincial voters form governments, only for Bangkokians to bring them down.
Thaksin's decline accompanied his estrangement from people in the capital. The election held one year after the 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin confirmed that. Although the People Power Party, the re-incarnation of dissolved TRT, won the election, the PPP lost to the Democrats in the city. There were many factors that undermined the PPP-led coalition in the year 2008, but lingering disenchantment of Bangkokians was one of them.
Can the Thaksin camp find its way back into the capital? Latest opinion polls suggest it is in a good position to do that. Bangkok re-domination will mean much to Pheu Thai, whose solid connections with the red shirts and unwavering support in the Northeast have earned them the image of a party for the grass roots. Its resurgence in the capital would give it another major boasting right, if the party can conquer both the rural areas and the city.
More importantly, perhaps, is what a Bangkok victory could do to the lingering memories of red-shirted turmoil last year. While the crackdown on the protesting red shirts has been a political thorn in the side of the Democrats, the arson and rioting have been hounding Pheu Thai, mocked by its rivals as "Phao Thai" (Burn Thai Party). Thaksin must want nothing more than absolution from the damaging images from last year's mayhem. A Pheu Thai triumph in Bangkok might not fulfil that wish in whole, but it would be a very strong message all the same as far as burning dozens of buildings in the city centrethe city is concerned.
The Democrats also badly need a city victory. If they are to lose in the nationwide tally, they will want Bangkok to save face. Moreover, the capital will be more than just a consolation. Any chance to vie for political power after July 3 may hinge on it.
The city battle, therefore, will be fierce and highly tactical. Bangkok often boasts the most fickle voters in Thailand and rarely backs any single party two times in a row. The voters' decision in this election will be influential for the future course of Thai politics, although both the winners and losers will have known they can never take the constituents for granted.
No comments:
Post a Comment