Puea Thai, Democrat and Bhum Jai Thai election predictions
By Bangkok Pundit Jun 09, 2011 9:00AM UTCComments Off
Out of the 375 constituency seats and 125 party-list seats, The Nation has the following from a Democrat source:
…compared to 203 seats the Democrat Party expected to win.
…
A Democrat source said yesterday that according to the party’s recent survey, the two parties are still in a neck-and-neck competition with a margin of only 10 seats between the election winner and the first runner-up.The Democrats expect to win 50-53 seats from the party list…In constituencies, the Democrats expect to win 30 out of 33 seats in Bangkok, 50 from the South, 40 from the Central region, 10 from the Northeast and 20 from the North.
BP: That comes to 200-203 MPs. This compares to Newin’s prediction of 160 for the Democrats and Suwat of Chat Pattana Puea Puea Paendin’s prediction of 180 for the Democrats as blogged about here. 48-52 seats on the party list is about what BP sees the Democrats will get so lets just say 50.
Let’s look at the last election:
For South, despite the reduction in seats in the South the Democrats expect to win 50. 45-47 is more likely. For the Central Region, 35-40. For the North, 14-19. For the Northeast, 5-10. For Bangkok, 14-23. If you take the mid-point, this gives the Democrats around 180. This is, of course, predicated on the third parties doing quite badly and the Democrats picking up some of their seats. Even if things go very well for the Democrats, it is hard to see them getting more than 190. To get to 203, they have to win 30 out of 33 Bangkok seats. Just look at the most recent poll for Bangkok and it is hard to see them doing that. Even if they do well in Bangkok in the final weeks of the campaign, can they really do better than last time? Similarly, BP sees it is difficult for them to get less than 165.
The Nation has the following from a Puea Thai source:
A Pheu Thai source said the party expects to win 60-70 House seats from the party-list election. Of the constituency MPs, 23 would come from Bangkok, 95-102 from the Northeast, at least 50 from the North, at least 38 from the Central and eastern seaboard regions, and one or two from the South
btw, of comparison Matichon Weekly, May 13-19, page 12, states that Puea Thai commissioned Gallop to do an internal poll and then it showed them winning 104 seats in the Northeast, 52 in the North, 39 in Central Region, 8 in the South, and 55 on the party list for 263-267 seats [Bangkok isn't mentioned so maybe add another 7 for Bangkok?]
A Deputy Puea Thai Leader is quoted by Suthichai Yoon as stating the following:
The overall target for Pheau Thai is 260-270 seats out of the total of 500. Bangkok’s estimate for the party is between 18 to 22, and 52-57 in Lower North; 50 plus for Central Plains and about 5 in the three southernmost provinces. Kanawat expects 60-65 seats from the party lists.
BP: PT are more likely to win around 55 from the party-list (a couple more than the Democrats), 10-19 in Bangkok, 73-83 in the Northeast, 41-47 in the North, 31-37 in the Central regions, and 1-2 in the South. The mid-point is around 228. In this scenario, even if Puea Thai does very well BP sees it is difficult that they get more than 245. The lowest in this scenario is 211. It is hard seeing them getting less than 210 aside from a complete and total collapse.
For Bhum Jai Thai, Matichon Weekly, May 13-19, page 12, has a Bhum Jai Thai source saying they will 70 seats. This includes 25 in the Northeast (Buriam 9, 4 in Surin, 4 in Nakhon Ratchasima, 2 in Bueng Kan, Nakhon Phanom, Khon Kaen, Mahasarakham, Amnat Charoen, Mukdahan, and Roi Et 1 each), 14 in the Central Region (Pathum Thani, 1, Saraburi 3, Prachinburi 1, Samut Prakarn 2, Chainat 2, Ratchaburi 2, Kanchanaburi 2, and Lopburi 2), and 3 elsewhere (1 each in Chiang Rai, Pattani, and Phayao). One assumes the remaining 28 are party-list MPs. It is hard to see Bhum Jai Thai getting more than 40. Around 30 is more likely, but they could even slip below 30.
On what these figures mean, see this post.
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http://asiancorrespondent.com/55704/thai-election-predictions/
Thai election predictions
By Bangkok Pundit May 26, 2011 4:06PM UTCComments Off
On May 20, 2011, Matichon Online had an article quoting [a source?] from a Bhum Jai Thai meeting where Newin [de facto leader of Bhum Jai Thai] stated that internal polling showed that Puea Thai would win 210 seats, Democrats 160, and Bhum Jai* 70+ (นการประชุมหารือของแกนนำ ภท. นายเนวินได้แจ้งว่า ตามผลสำรวจล่าสุดพบว่า พรรคเพื่อไทยจะได้อันดับ 1 ประมาณ 210 ที่นั่ง ส่วนพรรคประชาธิปัตย์ได้เป็นอันดับที่ 2 ประมาณ 160 ที่นั่ง ส่วนพรรคที่ 3 ต้องได้ที่นั่ง 70 ขึ้นไป). This is seemingly confirmed by what Newin said publicly yesterday he said, as quoted byMatichon, that the Democrats would win 160 seats and Puea Thai about 210 seats, but not more than half (i.e not more than 250) โดย ปชป.จะได้จำนวน ส.ส.ประมาณ 160 คน ส่วน พท.ประมาณ 210 ที่นั่ง เชื่อว่า พท.ได้เสียงไม่ถึงครึ่ง.
Matichon Weekly, May 20-26, on page 8 had an article entitled “จับแนวทาง วิเคราะห์ แนวทางของ สุวัจน์ ลิปตพัลลภ ทะลุผ่าน “ประชาธิปัตย์” which quoted Suwat Liptapanlop, the de facto leader of Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party, who stated that Puea Thai will win 220 seats, Democrats 180 and there will be around 100 seats left for the smaller parties.
BP: Now, of course, one should not blindly accept what a politician says about their own party’s chances and/or how they negatively portray their opponents chances. However, if Newin has told Bhum Jai Thai members (and now also the media) that Puea Thai will win 210 seats, is he doing this to somehow help Puea Thai? That doesn’t make sense. His relationship with Puea Thai is fractured and Puea Thai have stated (for now at least) that they will not form a government with Bhum Jai Thai.
If anything, Newin should be wanting to exaggerate the success of the Democrats since a Democrat+Bhum Jai+other parties excluding Puea Thai is Newin’s way of getting back into government and downplay Puea Thai’s chances – he has subtly done this now by saying that Yingluck, who is providing momentum to the Puea Thai campaign, won’t be PM. Having said that Newin needs to somehow account for how Bhum Jai Thai gets to 70 seats and given that they will also be contesting a number of seats in the Central Region and elsewhere outside of the Northeast they will be in competition with the Democrats in some seats. Overall, BP thinks that Newin slightly underestimates Democrat and Puea Thai numbers.
Suwat is in a slightly different position, and like Banharn’s Chat Thai Pattana, his Chat Pattana Puea Paendin could easily join a Democrat-led or Puea Thai-led government. Suwat’s estimate of a 40 MP gap is the same gap that BP tweeted last Friday – just before BP had a chance to read Matichon Weekly – and although had not stated what Puea Thai and the Democrats would get, BP thought it was around 100 MPs for the smaller parties so it is basically in line with what Suwat said of Puea Thai winning 220 and the Democrats 180. Nevertheless, BP thinks the vote for the smaller parties is *currently* shrinking and that the smaller parties could end up with less 100 MPs between them and possibly down to 70-80 MPs as the Abhisit vs Yingluck battle is dominating the news and that is where the contest is. Now, this does not necessarily mean this helps Puea Thai as a number of these seats that the smaller parties are likely to lose is in the Central Region, Lower Isaan, and the Democrats are in a good position to win some of those seats (i.e in Chonburi).
Around three months ago, BP would have said that there was a 70% chance that the Democrats would form the next government. Now, would put Puea Thai’s chances at 55-60%. Some key things to look for are (and the list is in order of importance below!):
1. If Puea Thai numbers are = to or higher than Dems + BJT numbers then it will be difficult for the Dems to form a government without PT defections post-election (it may not be easy to defect although need to wait until can actually get to see that the amended organic laws say).
For example, if the Dems win say 190 seats + BJT 40 seats and Puea Thai 215 then it will be an easy Dem+others excluding Puea Thai to form a government, but say that Puea Thai wins 225 whereas the Dems win 180+35 for BJT then it becomes more difficult. First, in terms of a “moral” sense that the margin is so wide and that there will be questions of legitimacy, but also in terms of a practical sense that to have any type of a stable government, in the knowledge that Ministers must abstain on certain votes and that the majority for such votes will be so narrow that the government would be on a knife-edge every vote and a handful of defectors/those who abstain would cause the collapse of the government. In that scenario, you would need PT defections and/or a number of red cards issued to PT candidates and thus new by-elections with non-PT candidates winning to have a stable government. If that happens, you could easily see the reds + PT coming out on the streets as it will be stated that it has been “fixed”.
2. If Bhum Jai Thai win less than 30 seats, it will be difficult for the Democrats to form a government as naturally Puea Thai would pick up enough of those seats that Bhum Jai Thai lose. Same applies if the Democrats win less than 175 seats or Puea Thai less than 215.
3. While it is often stated that Puea Thai need to win more than half of all seats to be able to form a government, BP thinks the magic figure is 230-235 seats. Once they win that many seats, it becomes extremely difficult for the Democrats to form a government. It then becomes easy for Puea Thai to persuade some of the smaller parties to join in exchange for a nice cabinet position and there is a first mover advantage.
4. If the Democrats win more than 200 seats, they have a very good chance of forming the next government. This scenario would either mean a Puea Thai collapse or the third party vote collapsing but the Democrats being the major beneficiary of the latter. This is also somewhat psychological because 200 means the gap between the two parties will be less than 30 and the Democrats will claim that they have enough support for a mandate.
BP will have some additional commentary looking at Bangkok and other key provinces, seats to watch on the election in the coming days/weeks….
*yes corrected this.
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