Lure of Politics Irresistible for Thai Military
Nilanjana Sengupta — Straits Times Indonesia | July 09, 2011
Nilanjana Sengupta — Straits Times Indonesia | July 09, 2011
Singapore. Although the Thai military has said it respects last Sunday's election outcome and will not stage another coup, questions remain about whether it can stay away from politics.
A veteran observer of the Thai politics military said Friday that the military, a powerful force in Thai politics, is likely to get involved at some point. The military has staged 18 actual or attempted coups in Thailand since the 1930s.
"It is impossible for the military to stay out of politics," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a former Thai diplomat and currently a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) in Singapore. "Military intervention is bound to happen. The question is sooner or later."
Pavin, who had returned to Thailand to observe the election, shared his observations and findings at a seminar organized by Iseas Friday.
He believes the political transition has been smooth so far only because it is hard for the military to overturn the Puea Thai party's overwhelming victory. It won 265 of the 500 Parliament seats.
Still, Pavin will not rule out a coup or interference in other ways. "They can co-opt the 'yellow shirts' to take to street protests to contest the legitimacy of the government, create instability on the Thai-Cambodia border, or raise the issue of Thaksin's return or his proximity to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen," he said. Yellow is the color used by anti-Thaksin protesters.
Or, he suggested, rivals can launch a judicial coup as they did in 2008, when the courts disqualified the Thaksin -linked government on charges of electoral fraud.
But there are some signs that the army may not be firmly united in opposition to Puea Thai and the "red shirts," who back the party. Pavin pointed to the example of Puea Thai candidate Leelawadee Watcharobol, who beat her rival in the contest for a seat deep inside the Democrat stronghold of Bangkok. The seat was in Dusit district, home to many army units.
"It shows some signs of political mutiny inside the barracks," said Pavin, "and also raises the question whether 'watermelon' soldiers will return to Thai politics once again." He was referring to soldiers who sympathized with the red shirts during last year's protests, and were thus dubbed "watermelons" - green on the outside, with a red core.
Reprinted courtesy of Straits Times Indonesia. To subscribe to Straits Times Indonesia and/or the Jakarta Globe call 021 2553 5055.
A veteran observer of the Thai politics military said Friday that the military, a powerful force in Thai politics, is likely to get involved at some point. The military has staged 18 actual or attempted coups in Thailand since the 1930s.
"It is impossible for the military to stay out of politics," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a former Thai diplomat and currently a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) in Singapore. "Military intervention is bound to happen. The question is sooner or later."
Pavin, who had returned to Thailand to observe the election, shared his observations and findings at a seminar organized by Iseas Friday.
He believes the political transition has been smooth so far only because it is hard for the military to overturn the Puea Thai party's overwhelming victory. It won 265 of the 500 Parliament seats.
Still, Pavin will not rule out a coup or interference in other ways. "They can co-opt the 'yellow shirts' to take to street protests to contest the legitimacy of the government, create instability on the Thai-Cambodia border, or raise the issue of Thaksin's return or his proximity to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen," he said. Yellow is the color used by anti-Thaksin protesters.
Or, he suggested, rivals can launch a judicial coup as they did in 2008, when the courts disqualified the Thaksin -linked government on charges of electoral fraud.
But there are some signs that the army may not be firmly united in opposition to Puea Thai and the "red shirts," who back the party. Pavin pointed to the example of Puea Thai candidate Leelawadee Watcharobol, who beat her rival in the contest for a seat deep inside the Democrat stronghold of Bangkok. The seat was in Dusit district, home to many army units.
"It shows some signs of political mutiny inside the barracks," said Pavin, "and also raises the question whether 'watermelon' soldiers will return to Thai politics once again." He was referring to soldiers who sympathized with the red shirts during last year's protests, and were thus dubbed "watermelons" - green on the outside, with a red core.
Reprinted courtesy of Straits Times Indonesia. To subscribe to Straits Times Indonesia and/or the Jakarta Globe call 021 2553 5055.
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