Abhisit Concedes as Pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Heads for Election Win
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July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva conceded defeat in elections as a party allied to ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra headed for a majority win in today's vote, five years after his ouster in a coup.
"It is clear that Pheu Thai will win the election," Abhisit told supporters at party headquarters in Bangkok, referring to the opposition party led by Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra. "I congratulate Yingluck on becoming the next prime minister."
With more than 80 percent of the total vote counted, Pheu Thai was expected to win 255 seats in the 500-member Parliament, with Abhisit's Democrat party winning 164 seats and smaller parties taking 81 seats, according to Election Commission data. Yingluck will become Thailand's first female prime minister.
The prospect of a Pheu Thai victory has heightened concerns of post-election violence that has led investors to sell Thai stocks and the currency over the past month. A wide margin of victory may deter the ruling elite from again overturning an election result, said Chris Baker, a Bangkok-based historian who co-wrote a biography of Thaksin.
"If the result does stand with this stunning a victory, then it shows just how many people resent what has been done to the politics of the country over the last five years," Baker said. "This certainly puts him in a very strong position."
Yingluck said Pheu Thai had been in contact with Chart Thai Pattana, one of the smaller parties, on forming a coalition government. She said she expected "other small parties to join later."
Exit polls earlier today showed Pheu Thai winning by a larger margin.
'Stunned' by Polls
Pheu Thai was forecast to win 313 seats, the Democrats 152 seats and smaller parties were expected to take 35 seats, according to a Suan Dusit Rajabhat University exit poll. The poll, which surveyed 157,759 people nationwide, correctly predicted pro-Thaksin victories in the elections in 2005 and 2007. It did not provide a margin of error.
"I hope that we will accept the decision by the majority of Thais in this election," Thaksin told Thai PBS television station by phone from Dubai, where he has lived since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008. "If you don't respect the decision of most people, the country can't have peace."
The Election Commission will certify winning candidates within 30 days, after which Parliament will meet to pick a prime minister, according to spokesman Paiboon Lekprom.
Election Results Overturned
The parties are vying for seats in the 500-member Parliament, with 375 chosen in constituencies and 125 through proportional representation. Thaksin-backed parties have won as much as 49 percent of seats in four previous elections dating back to 2001, only to see the last three results overturned through court rulings and a coup.
The SET Index dropped 3 percent in June, the biggest monthly decline since January, with state-owned Thai Airways International Pcl losing 18 percent. The baht fell 1.4 percent in that time, declining two months in a row for the first time since the end of protests a year ago.
"This will be positive for the Thai financial markets as the election results indicate Thailand's politics will be stable for at least three to six months," said Win Udomrachtavanich, chief investment officer at Asset Plus Fund Management Co., which oversees about $900 million of assets. "The government with a majority in the parliament will ensure better coordination on economic policies."
Thaksin's Return
A clear majority for Pheu Thai may raise the prospect of a return by Thaksin, who has been shaping Pheu Thai's strategy from exile in Dubai where he fled after being convicted for abuse of power in 2008.
Thaksin, 61, who founded what became Thailand's biggest mobile-phone company, has maintained his popularity among poorer northern Thais who make up a majority of the population and recall his policies of affordable health care and cheap loans. Parties linked to him have won at least 15 percent more seats than the Democrats in the last four elections.
Supporters of Thaksin, known as Red Shirts, blockaded parts of Bangkok the past two years to push for an election after smaller parties switched sides that year in a parliamentary vote to give the premiership to Abhisit. The protests last year killed 91 people.
Thaksin's opponents, who wear yellow shirts as a symbol of their allegiance to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, view the ex-premier as a corrupt billionaire who wants to regain power and subvert the monarchy. Since the 2006 coup, courts have disbanded two pro-Thaksin parties and disqualified two prime ministers backed by his allies.
Nine Coups
There have been nine coups since King Bhumibol ascended the throne in 1946. Twelve of Thailand's 27 prime ministers since absolute monarchy ended in 1932 have been military leaders.
Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha urged Thailand's 47.3 million voters last month not to pick the "same thing" in elections, the last four of which have been won by Thaksin loyalists. In the run-up to the election, Abhisit said Pheu Thai would grant Thaksin amnesty if it wins in an effort to galvanize opponents of the former premier.
Voters "want to send a message to whoever controls Thailand that it's time to let go of the power," said Pichai Naripthaphan, a former deputy finance minister who is a leading member of Pheu Thai's economic team. "It's time to let Thailand go on to democracy."
--With assistance from Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Anuchit Nguyen, Supunnabul Suwannakij and Yumi Teso in Bangkok. Editors: Peter Hirschberg, Tony Jordan
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/07/02/bloomberg1376-LNQYKV0UQVI901-0LLNOL0N51LU61IDNF6OAVBH6E.DTL#ixzz1R3AbaOUK
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