http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7314/regional-impact-of-thailands-withering-democracy

Regional Impact of Thailand's Withering Democracy

FABIO SCARPELLO | BIO | 14 DEC 2010
BRIEFING

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This is the second of a three-part series on Thailand's slide toward authoritarian rule. The first article discussed the domestic effects of Thailand's faltering democracy. This second article discusses the regional effects. A third article, to appear next week, will discuss the broader implications for the U.S.-China rivalry in Southeast Asia. The ripple effects of Thailand's withering democracy are being felt across Southeast Asia, a highly dynamic region that has never fully embraced democracy.  On one level, Thailand's slide towards authoritarianism has deprived the key regional organization, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of its most-progressive leader.  Until the turn of the millennium, Thailand was a beacon of democracy in a region that includes the dictatorial regime of Myanmar, the one-party states of Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei Darussalam and Singapore, and the hybrid democracies of Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia.  Although Thailand's liberal and pro-Western political and economic posture was viewed with as much suspicion as admiration in the region, Bangkok's success was an example of a democratic system able to promote stability and prosperity. Thailand also seemed poised to lead ASEAN toward becoming a more dynamic and effective regional body, one with closer ties to the U.S. and Europe.  However, Thailand's reverse democratization and the violence that has characterized it has tarnished participatory democracy as an approach to governance in the view of some ASEAN members. Paired with China's well-documented soft-power onslaught in the region, the result is that countries such as Laos and Vietnam have backed away from opening up their political systems and are increasingly attracted to the Beijing model of capitalism. As for ASEAN's ties to the West, the collapse of the EU-ASEAN free-trade agreement (FTA) talks, begun in 2007 and halted by mutual agreement in March 2009, is revealing, especially in light of the ASEAN-China FTA that entered into effect on Jan. 1, 2010.  Bangkok's loss of prestige within ASEAN was exacerbated in April 2009, when anti-government demonstrators forced the cancellation of the ASEAN summit slated to take place in Pattaya, Thailand. In a region where local culture places huge emphasis on formality and "keeping face," Bangkok was left blushing as heads of state were forced to evacuate by helicopter or turned around mid-flight on their way to the meeting. The summit had already been rescheduled twice due to Thailand's ongoing problems.  Thailand's withering democracy has also affected its posture toward its neighbors, leading to a demonstrable upswing in relations with like-minded countries, most noticeably Myanmar.  Following Myanmar's November elections, universally attacked by Western governments as neither free nor fair, Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was quoted as saying that, "a single election could not change Burma's situation overnight," and that Thailand "would deal with the new government emerging from the election in an open and constructive way." The remarks were duly noted by the Myanmar junta. Although former Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra had business links with the junta, Bangkok has historically maintained a pro-Western and anti-junta position regarding Myanmar. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, noted that the last Thai prime minister hailing from the Democratic Party, Chuan Leekpai, made a point of not setting foot on Myanmar soil in the late-1990s due to the junta's oppressive grip on power. Conversely, Abhisit not only visited Naypyidaw -- Myanmar's secluded new capital -- but also came home with a multi-billion-dollar port-development deal. "Thailand's relative emphasis on human rights and democracy as its foreign policy underpinnings have gone out the window," Thitinan wrote recently.  Moreover, Abhist instructed the Ministry of Commerce to facilitate two-way deals and approved the establishment of a special economic zone along the border.  Thailand's political instability is also largely to blame for rising tension with Cambodia. Relations between Thailand and Cambodia have always been shaped by historical grievances, reaching back to the Khmer conquest of much of what is today's Thailand and the subsequent Siamese reconquest, which laid the foundations of the modern state. But the current tension, centered on the dispute over the Preah Vihear temple, is fueled by domestic interests in Bangkok.  Thailand's claim to the temple is most forcibly defended by the military and the conservative People's Alliance for Democracy, a group that largely supports Abhisit's nationalistic, conservative and pro-monarchy stance. The tension has helped the military access funds and has given the conservative grouping ammunition against its political adversaries. As a result, although a major military confrontation is unlikely, Bangkok has little interest in working toward full reconciliation. To the contrary, the military and conservative coalition benefit from periodically heightening tensions, which allow them to divert attention from the deteriorating domestic situation, while also scoring points as the defenders of the monarchy and national sovereignty. The temple stand-off, combining historical bad blood and a stubborn ongoing dispute, would be better managed under a functioning democratic system of competing political interests. As Thailand is unlikely to return to such a system in the medium term, the country stands to lose further ground in shaping the region's future.  But the ripple effects of its drastic slippery slope toward a military regime can be felt even further afield. Geopolitics is at play, with Beijing and Washington watching closely. Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for the Italian news agency Adnkronos International. He is based in Denpasar, Indonesia. Photo: Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva (World Economic Forum photo).