Pressure-cooker year beckons for Thai politics
Govt push for Thaksin's return, amnesties and a charter rewrite could spark turmoil
Some old political roadblocks will remain for the Yingluck Shinawatra government this year, while some new issues could overheat local politics, spurring cabinet reshuffles to let off some of the resulting steam.
There is no doubt that powerful figures in the government have been trying to keep political conflicts to a minimum. Still, political observers expect the 2012 political scene to be a pressure cooker.
The main reason behind the simmering political stew remains the same as last year _ fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's desire to return to Thailand without fear of incarceration.
Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, a public administration academic at Sripatum University, believes the push for Thaksin's return could trigger political turmoil this year.
The Supreme Court sentenced Thaksin to two years in jail for abusing his authority when he helped his ex-wife buy a state-owned land plot in Bangkok nearly a decade ago. The former PM fled Thailand just before the verdict was announced.
Mr Somchai said that Thaksin's wish to return to Thailand under amnesty would prompt a strong outcry from his opponents.
As the government, led by Thaksin's youngest sister, drafts amnesty legislation which would seek pardons for people who were charged in criminal cases in the aftermath of the Sept 19 coup, it underestimates the political power of its opponents.
The pro-Thaksin camp, emboldened by a resounding win at the polls in July, probably perceives the opposition as weakened. That is why they will push hard for a jail-free return for Thaksin this year.
Mr Somchai does not interpret the anti-Thaksin camp's silence as a lack of power, though.
The network does not believe Thaksin has made a serious attempt to return home yet, so is staying quiet for now.
Another political risk is the government's attempt to replace the constitution, Mr Somchai said.
The ruling Pheu Thai Party is trying to smoothe the way for the charter change by floating the idea of setting up a Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) so it can do the job in a way that is seen as being more participatory.
The party wants the assembly to comprise 101 members. One member will be elected from each of the 77 provinces, while academics will be appointed to the remaining 24 seats at the table.
Mr Somchai said that if the CDA process is allowed to continue, people who oppose the government could enter the drafting assembly through a nationwide election.
They would probably oppose the government's wishes for a new constitution.
"Drafting a constitution through the CDA could easily spur new obstacles for the government. I am afraid that if implemented, the CDA could run into so many problems that it may have to be dissolved before accomplishing its task," Mr Somchai said.
He is also concerned that attempts to amend the charter will spark clashes between those seeking change and those who support the present constitution.
The 2007 charter was approved by 14.7 million voters, or 57.8% of the total, during a national referendum.
The most sensitive topic regarding the charter chang is Section 309, a possible flashpoint which recognises the actions of the coup council which toppled the Thaksin government and ensures they cannot be prosecuted for their actions.
The coupmakers took many legal actions against Thaksin and his associates after the putsch, including the one that resulted in about half of his assets being seized.
Mr Somchai said that some democracy activists and pro-Thaksin academics have insisted on redacting Section 309, but he's not certain if the Pheu Thai Party and the proposed CDA would dare do so.
Targeting Section 309 could rouse some powerful anti-Thaksin forces currently in hibernation.
Another risk factor is plans to issue an amnesty law to call off prosecutions launched after the coup. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung was assigned to hammer out a measure which he has named a "reconciliation bill".
Mr Somchai said unless Mr Chalerm keeps the content of the bill reconciliatory, the attempt could provoke serious conflict.
A fourth risk factor has to do with cabinet reshuffles, especially the first one expected to occur in the middle of this year to welcome back some of the 111 banned executives of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party.
The politicians, considered the cream of the pro-Thaksin crop, will be able to re-enter politics after May 31. A cabinet reshuffle, supposedly to welcome the veteran politicians back into the game, may please certain factions in the party, but could upset current cabinet members who risk losing their seats.
The spectre of a cabinet reshuffle would please red shirt leaders, some of whom expect to land cabinet portfolios. These include Natthawut Saikua, who may replace either of the PM's Office Ministers Surawit Khonsomboon or Krissana Seehalak. It is believed Mr Natthawut could be assigned a job supervising government-owned media.
Chaiwat Khamchu, a political scientist of Chulalongkorn University, does not see the cabinet reshuffle as contributing to internal divisions within the ruling party, however.
Instead, Mr Chaiwat said the expected return of the banned politicians to the cabinet would strengthen the Yingluck government because they are capable executives. They would do a better job than their "nominees", who have performed poorly in some of the portfolios.
"Ms Yingluck will have more choices for strengthening her administration. These people will be better choices than the present ones," Mr Chaiwat said.
The academic is also optimistic about the proposed charter change. He said the government would be able to muffle the resulting political noise by welcoming public participation in the drafting process, particularly by including elected members chosen in a national referendum.
Another flashpoint was averted when Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm confirmed the government would keep Section 112 of the Criminal Code, otherwise known as the lese majeste law. This also reflects the government's desire to avoid confrontation with royalists, he said.
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