Yingluck aces the balancing test - so far
04:46 AM Jan 03, 2012
It has been five months since Ms Yingluck Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai party, won a landslide election in July. She became the first female Prime Minister of Thailand. Since then, her government has encountered a number of difficult issues, from the devastating floods and the controversial amnesty for her brother Thaksin, to the increasing number of cases of lese majeste.
All eyes are on how Ms Yingluck will survive in a dangerously polarised political climate.
The key to her government's survival is to build a working relationship with the military and the palace, the two main institutions that have been influencing Thai politics for decades. And Ms Yingluck began to forge friendly ties with them soon after assuming the premiership.
Back in August, Ms Yingluck handpicked General Yuthasak Sasiprapha as her Minister of Defence, saying he was the right man for the job. He has maintained his connection with many high-ranking army officers. He understands the military culture. More importantly, he is much more senior than the current outspoken army chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Gen Prayuth is known to be an anti-Thaksin figure. A staunch supporter of the palace, Gen Prayuth aggressively intervened in politics during the Abhisit Vejjajiva regime to protect the interests of the monarchy and the military. He was a member of the Queen's Guard; this explains why he received the palace's endorsement to take up the army chief position.
When asked if he might consider staging a coup at the peak of the Thai-Cambodian conflict early this year, Gen Prayuth replied: "It is an attractive option."
Staging a coup has become a norm in Thai politics. But the new Defence Minister has vowed not to allow one more such action. "I will stop the military from launching another coup. If the army chief is unhappy with the government, then please tell us. Coups are old-fashioned. A new generation of soldiers rejects them," emphasised Gen Yuthasak.
Despite being strong-minded, Gen Yuthasak has at the same time sought not to antagonise the old power network centred upon the monarchy. Accordingly, after he became Defence Minister, he paid a visit to Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, former Prime Minister and president of the Privy Council. Gen Prem remains an influential figure in politics although he no longer holds a political position.
Acknowledging the complex nature of civil-military relations, Ms Yingluck has been pursuing a friendly approach towards the military. She worked closely with the military during the flood crisis and refused to remove Gen Prayuth from his army chief post during the recent military reshuffle in October.
When Thaksin was in power, he intruded into military affairs as a way to prevent possible coup attempts. In so doing, Thaksin broke the professionalism and corporateness of the army. He placed his relatives in key positions in the military, controlling its budget and diminishing its role in national security and foreign affairs.
Thaksin's move was a big slap in the face for the military elite. They reclaimed their power by toppling him. Not wishing to make the same mistake, Ms Yingluck recently declared: "I will not meddle in the military's affairs."
But her government's survival does not depend on amicable relations with the army alone. Ms Yingluck has striven to make a connection with and gain the trust of the palace.
The royalists have already accused the Red Shirt movement and some Puea Thai members of anti-monarchy leanings. Being perceived as disrespectful to the monarchy is a crime in Thailand. How Ms Yingluck can prove her allegiance to the monarchy is crucial to her government's endurance.
This is because the monarchy has played a quintessential role in politics. The King sits on top of the political structure and continues to be regarded as the ultimate moral authority. Unfortunately, defenders of the monarchy have incessantly exploited the much revered institution for their political purposes.
The Yingluck government, like other pro-Thaksin governments in the past, will not escape the ferocious game in which its loyalty to the monarchy will be constantly challenged. This explains why her government has been reluctant to push for a reform of the lese majeste law.
Ms Yingluck is at a difficult crossroads. If she comes across as a weak leader, her enemies will shred her to pieces. If she becomes too strong and popular, perhaps taking the spotlight from the centuries-old monarchy, she could also be in serious trouble. A prudent balancing act is needed for her to see out a full four-year term.
Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
All eyes are on how Ms Yingluck will survive in a dangerously polarised political climate.
The key to her government's survival is to build a working relationship with the military and the palace, the two main institutions that have been influencing Thai politics for decades. And Ms Yingluck began to forge friendly ties with them soon after assuming the premiership.
Back in August, Ms Yingluck handpicked General Yuthasak Sasiprapha as her Minister of Defence, saying he was the right man for the job. He has maintained his connection with many high-ranking army officers. He understands the military culture. More importantly, he is much more senior than the current outspoken army chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Gen Prayuth is known to be an anti-Thaksin figure. A staunch supporter of the palace, Gen Prayuth aggressively intervened in politics during the Abhisit Vejjajiva regime to protect the interests of the monarchy and the military. He was a member of the Queen's Guard; this explains why he received the palace's endorsement to take up the army chief position.
When asked if he might consider staging a coup at the peak of the Thai-Cambodian conflict early this year, Gen Prayuth replied: "It is an attractive option."
Staging a coup has become a norm in Thai politics. But the new Defence Minister has vowed not to allow one more such action. "I will stop the military from launching another coup. If the army chief is unhappy with the government, then please tell us. Coups are old-fashioned. A new generation of soldiers rejects them," emphasised Gen Yuthasak.
Despite being strong-minded, Gen Yuthasak has at the same time sought not to antagonise the old power network centred upon the monarchy. Accordingly, after he became Defence Minister, he paid a visit to Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, former Prime Minister and president of the Privy Council. Gen Prem remains an influential figure in politics although he no longer holds a political position.
Acknowledging the complex nature of civil-military relations, Ms Yingluck has been pursuing a friendly approach towards the military. She worked closely with the military during the flood crisis and refused to remove Gen Prayuth from his army chief post during the recent military reshuffle in October.
When Thaksin was in power, he intruded into military affairs as a way to prevent possible coup attempts. In so doing, Thaksin broke the professionalism and corporateness of the army. He placed his relatives in key positions in the military, controlling its budget and diminishing its role in national security and foreign affairs.
Thaksin's move was a big slap in the face for the military elite. They reclaimed their power by toppling him. Not wishing to make the same mistake, Ms Yingluck recently declared: "I will not meddle in the military's affairs."
But her government's survival does not depend on amicable relations with the army alone. Ms Yingluck has striven to make a connection with and gain the trust of the palace.
The royalists have already accused the Red Shirt movement and some Puea Thai members of anti-monarchy leanings. Being perceived as disrespectful to the monarchy is a crime in Thailand. How Ms Yingluck can prove her allegiance to the monarchy is crucial to her government's endurance.
This is because the monarchy has played a quintessential role in politics. The King sits on top of the political structure and continues to be regarded as the ultimate moral authority. Unfortunately, defenders of the monarchy have incessantly exploited the much revered institution for their political purposes.
The Yingluck government, like other pro-Thaksin governments in the past, will not escape the ferocious game in which its loyalty to the monarchy will be constantly challenged. This explains why her government has been reluctant to push for a reform of the lese majeste law.
Ms Yingluck is at a difficult crossroads. If she comes across as a weak leader, her enemies will shred her to pieces. If she becomes too strong and popular, perhaps taking the spotlight from the centuries-old monarchy, she could also be in serious trouble. A prudent balancing act is needed for her to see out a full four-year term.
Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
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