YEARENDER: The year that shook the Thai establishment
By Peter Janssen Dec 13, 2010, 2:06 GMT
Bangkok - Thailand's image as a stable, cohesive, easy-going and somewhat feudalistic Asian country that managed to avoid colonialism and deftly adapt to every global challenge thrown its way took a beating in 2010.
Between March and May, red-shirted anti-government protesters took to the streets ofBangkok demanding Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the 64-year-old Democrat Party, dissolve parliament and hold new elections.
Their chief complaint was that the Democrat-led coalition government, set up in December 2008 after seven months of yellow- shirted anti-government protests inBangkok, was the result of a behind-the-scenes deal finessed by the establishment - the military, senior bureaucrats, judiciary and royalists.
The red shirts' rhetoric this year was unusually radical for a Thai demonstration.
There were calls for a 'class war,' a 'people's revolution,' and an end to the status quo that has prevailed in Thailand since a coup overthrew the absolute monarchy in 1932, ushering in eight decades of semi-democratic rule under a constitutional monarchy interrupted by 18 military coups - the last of which was in September 19, 2006.
Tens of thousands attended the red rallies, seizing the capital's centre, defying emergency law and boldly fighting back with sling shots and war weapons when troops were sent in to disband them.
By May 19, when the demonstration was finally crushed and its leaders arrested, some 91 had died - including 11 soldiers and policemen and two foreign journalists - more than 1,400 had been injured and parts of the city were left in flames.
Thailand's deep political divide was laid bare and bloody. Thai leaders, academics and businessmen came out to publicly acknowledge that not all was well in the kingdom and that change would be inevitable.
'We are now accepting that Thais will not think the same any more,' said acting government spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn. 'Different colours and politics will continue until we've had the transition period ... we don't know when.'
Thailand, a diverse melting pot of ethnic groups, religions, rich capitalists and poor farmers, has been held together politically for the past 64 years by Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej, a monarch whose hard work and dedication to his people has earned him global respect and widespread reverence at home. He ascended to the throne in 1946.
But the king, who turned 83 on December 5, is frail. He has been staying at Bangkok's Siriraj Hospital since September 2009.
Inevitable questions about succession and the role of the monarchy in Thailand's future have arisen. The part played by fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in this picture cannot be ignored.
That Thaksin, a billionaire and former telecommunication tycoon who was premier between 2001 and 2006, has become one of the chief catalysts for social change. But he cast a cynical shadow over this period of deep divisions.
His combative style, money and vengeful tendencies has helped polarize Thai society into two camps destined for a showdown.
'Everything has been going one way,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. 'For the first five years it went Thaksin's way, and for the last five years it's gone the way for his opponents. This is not about compromising. It's about prevailing.'
After the quelling of the red shirts in May, Thailand has settled in to an 'eerie false calm,' according to Thitinan.
The capital stayed under emergency decree for much of 2010, allowing authorities immunity and special rights in cracking down on any sign of descent. Most of the red shirts leaders remain in jail, facing charges of terrorism and other crimes.
The army is now under General Prayuth Chanocha, a hawk among the military hierarchy who has made it clear he will brook no more unruliness or insults to the monarchy.
The judiciary has been remarkably consistent in making rulings favourable to the establishment and Democrats. But there is a political price to pay.
'The red movement may have been destroyed in Bangkok, but it is still strong in the provinces,' said Chaturon Chaisaeng, a former leader of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party. 'In the meantime, several mechanisms such as the army, the judiciary, some independent bodies and constitutional organizations have lost their credibility badly.'
With a showdown between the establishment and forces of change still brewing, that lack of credibility is worrisome.
'The country could be in a situation where nobody listened to anybody any more,' Chaturon said.
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